Bad Divisions, Targeted Overs (4/5 MLB)

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Samuel Garmoe
April 05, 2025

Table of Contents

We went 2/4 yesterday, missing on both picks in Dodgers vs. Phillies due to an unlikely defensive battle. Schwarber had 0 hits but forced 2 walks, while Ohtani had a rare game without doing something amazing. 50% is not a bad performance for our first MLB picks, but today we look to improve. Only two picks today - playing conservative as we develop our MLB data.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (4/5): 2-2 (50%)

MLB: 2-2 (50%)

April ‘25: 7-6 (53.8%)

All-Time: 117-98 (54.4%)

🎯 Reese Olson Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Best Price: +128 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 Strikeouts

Key Analysis

Olson began his season with a nightmare matchup on the road against the Dodgers. He fared decently, managing almost 5 innings and still hitting 5 strikeouts. Today, he swings to face the worst team in baseball at home. The White Sox are essentially a minor league offense and Olson has a very hittable strikeout line.

Risk Factors

  • Early season volatility shows in the line

🎯 Baltimore Orioles OVER 3.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: -132 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 runs/game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 runs/game

  • Season Average: 4.8 runs/game

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 1 out of last 3

  • 2 out of last 5

Key Analysis

The Orioles have gone cold for the last few days. However, Gunnar Henderson is now back for the O’s and his return cannot be overstated. He did play yesterday with little contribution, but it takes time for players to return to form after injuries. We feel that Baltimore will get back on track today and muster four runs.

Risk Factors

  • Henderson’s timing may need more games to return fully

🎯 March Madness Championship Contenders

We highlighted several teams in the primer who we feel are the best bets to win the championship. The tournament has been painfully chalky this year, but that does mean two of our futures recommendations have survived! If you listened to us before the tournament, you’re looking real solid on your futures bets!

Futures of title contenders before the tournament (ESPN Bet odds):

Duke +290

Florida +335

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Reese Olson OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

  • 5 strikeouts against a brutal Dodgers lineup in first start

  • Facing a White Sox lineup that struck out 11 times yesterday

2. âš¡ Baltimore Orioles OVER 3.5 runs scored

  • Gunnar Henderson is getting acclimated to the lineup again

  • Low bar to hit for one of MLB’s best offenses

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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