Banking on the Unders: Today’s Best Value Plays

Rea, Outman, Martinez, Rasmussen highlight an unders-only card

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 20, 2025

August has been a winning month so far, and the goal now is to keep that momentum rolling. The trends are pointing squarely toward the unders, with pitching matchups and offensive form lining up for value spots across the slate. Today’s card features Rea under outs, Outman under total bases, Martinez under earned runs, and Rasmussen under hits allowed, each backed by strong data and recent performance. We’ll stick to the game plan, trust the trends, and look to keep stacking green.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 193-164 (54%; +24.5 Units)

August ‘25: 34-24 (59%; +6.59 Units)

All-Time: 318-265 (55%; +59.7 Units)

🎯 Colin Rea UNDER 16.5 Outs

Best Price: -108 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 15 Outs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 15.67 Outs/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 14.8 Outs/G

  • Season Average: 14.6 Outs/G

  • Confidence Score: 80

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 7 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Colin Rea’s UNDER 16.5 outs at -108 on FanDuel lines up with both his recent workload and the Brewers’ offensive form. He’s averaging 14.8 outs over his last five starts and 14.6 on the season, consistently coming up short of the 17 needed to clear this line. Rea has stayed under in 7 of his last 10 outings, including 4 of his last 5, and enters with a 4.13 ERA that suggests he’s been hittable. The matchup makes things tougher as well with the Brewers are averaging 5.16 runs and 8.78 hits per game on the season, and over their last 10 they’ve held opposing starters to just 13.7 outs per game. With a lineup that makes pitchers work and Rea’s track record of shorter outings, the 80 confidence score reflects solid value on the under here.

Risk Factors

  • While the Brewers offense has been hot, they have cooled down and were held to just 1 run in their last game

🎯 James Outman UNDER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -120 on Casesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 TB/G

  • Season Average: 0.583 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

James Outman’s UNDER 0.5 total bases at -120 on Caesars looks like a strong value play given his struggles against right-handed pitching. He’s stayed under this number in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging just 0.6 total bases over his last five and 0.583 on the season. Outman is hitting a weak .132 with a .214 OBP vs RHP, making it tough for him to consistently find success in this matchup. He’ll face Ginn, who has been limiting damage effectively, allowing just 4.2 hits per game over his last five starts. With Outman’s cold splits and Ginn’s ability to keep hitters quiet, the 92 confidence score reflects a strong case for the under.

Risk Factors

  • Ginn carries a 5.04 ERA and has allowed as many as 6 hits in a single outing this season

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🎯 Nick Martinez UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 ER

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 ER/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 ER/G

  • Season Average: 2.704 ER/G

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 6 out of last 7 under

Key Analysis

Nick Martinez’s UNDER 2.5 earned runs at -105 on DraftKings looks like a strong bounce-back spot despite a rough last outing. He’s been steady overall, averaging 2.4 ER/G over his last five starts and 2.704 on the season, with 6 of his last 7 games staying under this line. While he did allow 5 earned runs in his most recent start, his last 3-game average sits at 2.67 ER/G, showing that performance was more of an outlier. The matchup is manageable as well, with the Angels averaging 4.41 runs per game this season, slightly above league average but not an overwhelming offense. Martinez’s consistency in limiting damage, especially compared to this modest run-producing opponent, supports the 86 confidence score and makes this a solid under look.

Risk Factors

  • Martinez allowed as many as 10 ER in a single start this season

🎯 Drew Rasmussen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/G

  • Season Average: 3.75 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Drew Rasmussen’s UNDER 4.5 hits allowed at -110 on DraftKings comes with strong backing from both trends and matchup history. He’s been sharp at limiting contact, averaging 3.6 hits per game over his last five and 3.75 on the season, staying under this number in 9 of his last 10 starts. Rasmussen has held the Yankees in check this year as well, allowing just 4 hits in one start and 3 in another, showing he matches up well against their lineup. With three straight unders and consistency in keeping opponents under 5 hits, the 82 confidence score reflects a favorable spot for him to continue that trend.

Risk Factors

  • Yankees offense has been heating up with 16 hits in their last game

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

  • Kyle Schwarber

  • Tyler Soderstrom

  • Shohei Ohtani

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Nick Martinez UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-105 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

    • Averaging just 2.4 ER/G over last 5 starts

    • The matchup is manageable as well, with the Angels averaging 4.41 runs per game this season, slightly above league average but not an overwhelming offense

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Colin Rea UNDER 16.5 Outs (-108 FanDuel)

  • 4/L5 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 14.8 Outs/G over last 5 starts

  • The matchup makes things tougher as well with the Brewers are averaging 5.16 runs and 8.78 hits per game on the season, and over their last 10 they’ve held opposing starters to just 13.7 outs per game

2. ⬇️ James Outman UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (-120 Caesars)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Just 3 TB over his last 10 games

  • Outman is hitting a weak .132 with a .214 OBP vs RHP, making it tough for him to consistently find success in this matchup against Ginn, who has been limiting damage effectively, allowing just 4.2 hits per game over his last five starts

3. 👎 Drew Rasmussen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-110 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Allowing just 3.6 H/G over last 5 starts

  • Rasmussen has held the Yankees in check this year as well, allowing just 4 hits in one start and 3 in another, showing he matches up well against their lineup

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team