Sharp trends are lining up across the board today, and the numbers point to a slate full of value. We’ve built a card that positions us for +5.57 units of potential profit, mixing hot bats with smart fades on the mound. The matchups are clear, the confidence is high, and we’re looking to keep stacking green as August momentum rolls on.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 194-167 (54%; +22.5 Units)

August ‘25: 35-27 (57%; +4.54 Units)

All-Time: 319-268 (54%; +57.7 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Miguel Andujar OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +100 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 2 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2 TB/G

• Season Average: 1.68 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Miguel Andújar’s OVER 1.5 total bases at +100 on Caesars offers strong value given his recent consistency. He’s gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 2 TB per game over both his last three and last five outings, comfortably above his 1.68 season average. Andújar has been productive against right-handed pitching with a .330 OBP, and he draws Ryne Nelson, who has allowed 6 or more hits in four straight starts. With both matchup and recent form in his favor, the 92 confidence score reflects a strong chance Andújar continues to generate extra bases tonight.

Risk Factors

• XBH or multi-hit game needed to cash

🎯 Braxton Ashcraft UNDER 14.5 Outs

Best Price: +145 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 15 Outs

• Last 3-Game Average: 10.67 Outs/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 9.4 Outs/G

• Season Average: 6.579 Outs/G

• Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Braxton Ashcraft’s UNDER 14.5 outs at +145 on BetMGM is well-supported by both usage and production trends. He’s averaged just 6.58 outs per outing on the season, and even with a small recent uptick, he’s still sitting at 9.4 outs over his last five starts and 10.67 over his last three, all well below the 15 needed to clear this line. He’s stayed under in 9 of his last 10 appearances and has never thrown more than 61 pitches in a game this season, as he’s been used mostly in short starts or long relief. The matchup also works against him: Colorado is averaging 3 runs in the first five innings over their last three games and 5.67 total runs per game in that span, which puts early pressure on starters. With limited pitch counts, a tendency to work short outings, and a Rockies offense capable of scoring early, the 93 confidence score reflects strong value on the under.

Risk Factors

• Pittsburgh stretches Ashcraft beyond his usual workload

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🎯 Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -110 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 TB/G

• Season Average: 2.181 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Kyle Schwarber’s OVER 1.5 total bases at -110 on Caesars has plenty of upside given his power and recent production. He’s cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games, including three straight, averaging 4.33 TB over his last three and 2.8 over his last five, both well above his 2.181 season average. Schwarber crushes right-handed pitching with a .937 OPS vs RHP, and he draws Cade Cavalli, who has allowed 7 hits across his last two starts, one of which came against the Phillies. With his recent form, strong split, and a hittable matchup, the 85 confidence score reflects a solid spot for Schwarber to rack up multiple bases again.

Risk Factors

• Schwarber tends to bring all or nothing performances and he went 0-3 in his last matchup with Cavalli

🎯 Max Fried OVER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: +125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 ER

• Last 3-Game Average: 5 ER/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 4.2 ER/G

• Season Average: 2.16 ER/G

• Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Max Fried’s OVER 2.5 earned runs at +125 on DraftKings offers strong plus-money value given his recent struggles. He’s allowed 4+ ER in 4 of his last 5 starts, averaging 5 ER per game over his last three and 4.2 over his last five, far above his 2.16 season average. Fried has also been hit consistently, surrendering 8 hits in three straight 5-inning outings, showing opponents are squaring him up early. The matchup isn’t forgiving either, with Boston averaging 4.98 runs per game this season, including 2.72 runs in the first five innings, which aligns with Fried’s recent struggles getting out of jams early. With his current form trending well above this line and the Red Sox’s offense capable of applying pressure, the 93 confidence score highlights strong value on the over here.

Risk Factors

• Fried has the ability to bring ace level performance

🎯 Ryan Gusto UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -104 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 8 SO

• Last 3-Game Average: 6 SO/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 SO/G

• Season Average: 3.8 SO/G

• Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ryan Gusto’s UNDER 5.5 strikeouts at -104 on FanDuel looks favorable when lined up with both trends and matchup. He’s stayed under this mark in 8 of his last 10 starts, averaging just 3.8 Ks over both his last five and the season overall. While he did spike for 8 strikeouts in his most recent outing, that looks more like an outlier compared to his usual production. The opponent also matters here, Toronto owns the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 6.76 per game, making them one of the toughest lineups for pitchers to rack up Ks against. With form and matchup both leaning under, the 82 confidence score reflects value on Gusto falling short of 6 strikeouts.

Risk Factors

• With strikeout momentum from his last start, Gusto could reach 6 or more again

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Braxton Ashcraft UNDER 14.5 Outs (+145 BetMGM)

   • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

   • Averaging 9.4 outs per game over last 5

   • The matchup works against him: Colorado is averaging 3 runs in the first five innings over their last three games and 5.67 total runs per game in that span, which puts early pressure on starters

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Miguel Andujar OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100 Caesars)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 2 TB/G in L5

• Andújar has been productive against right-handed pitching with a .330 OBP, and he draws Ryne Nelson, who has allowed 6 or more hits in four straight starts

2. ⚡ Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110 Caesars)

• 7/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 4.33 TB/G over last 3

• Schwarber crushes right-handed pitching with a .937 OPS vs RHP, and he draws Cade Cavalli, who has allowed 7 hits across his last two starts, one of which came against the Phillies

3. 💥 Max Fried OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (+125 DraftKings)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 4.2 ER/G over his last 5 starts

• The matchup isn’t forgiving, with Boston averaging 4.98 runs per game this season, including 2.72 runs in the first five innings, which aligns with Fried’s recent struggles getting out of jams early

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Ryan Gusto UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-104 FanDuel)

• 8/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 3.8 SO/G over last 5 starts

• Toronto owns the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 6.76 per game, making them one of the toughest lineups for pitchers to rack up Ks against

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team