Bases Loaded Bets: Today’s Top MLB Props at Big Odds

Targeting Strikeouts, Rebounds, and a Cold Bat for Maximum Value

Author

Sage Davis
May 21, 2025

We got the bounce-back we were looking for yesterday, cashing in a winning day and pushing our May win rate to 61.5%. It’s a packed MLB slate today, with action starting early at 12:35 PM ET—let’s lock in and keep stacking green.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/20): 2-1 (67%; +0.66 Units)

MLB: 79-66 (54%; +17.81 Units)

NBA: 115-86 (57%; +41.4 units)

May ‘25: 40-25 (61.5%; +7.31 Units)

All-Time: 204-167 (55%; +53 Units)

🎯 Oneil Cruz UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +100 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 H/R/RBI

  • Last 3-Game Average: .33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: .4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.78 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Oneil Cruz's UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is shaping up as a strong value play at +100 on ESPN Bet, backed by both recent trends and matchup data. Cruz has stayed under this number in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, averaging just 0.4 H/R/RBIs over his last five games. His recent struggles are underscored by a .143 batting average in May and .191 at home on the season. Adding to the appeal of the under, he faces Brady Singer, who’s been sharp—allowing just 23 runs on 33 hits over his last 7 starts. While Cruz’s season average sits at 1.78, his current form suggests that number is inflated. With a Confidence Score of 90, the under looks like a high-probability play at even money.

Risk Factors

  • 1-for-2 career against Singer

🎯 Hunter Brown OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -129 Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 9 Ks

  • Last 3-Game Average: 9 K/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 9 K/G

  • Season Average: 7.444 K/G

  • Confidence Score: 75

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Hunter Brown’s OVER 6.5 strikeouts is in a strong spot today, priced at -129 on Pinnacle, with both recent form and matchup data backing the play. Brown has cleared this line in five straight starts, averaging 9 Ks per game over his last 3 and 5 outings—well above his season average of 7.44. He faces a Rays lineup that strikes out frequently, averaging 8.48 Ks per game overall and 9.17 Ks per game at home, making them a prime target for high strikeout totals. With a Confidence Score of 75, this is also an ideal ladder play, where bettors can look to grab alternate strikeout lines at higher odds to capitalize on Brown’s upside.

Risk Factors

  • Rays just 5 Ks in last game

🎯 Tyrese Haliburton OVER 4.5 Rebounds

Best Price: +105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 Reb

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 Reb/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.6 Reb/G

  • Season Average: 3.8 Reb/G

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tyrese Haliburton’s OVER 4.5 rebounds is an appealing plus-money prop at +105 on BetMGM, with both postseason performance and recent trends pointing toward value. While his season average sits at 3.8 rebounds per game, he's stepped up on the glass in the playoffs, averaging 5.5 rebounds per game. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including his last regular season matchup against the Knicks, where he grabbed 5 boards. Though his 3-game average is slightly below at 3.67, his 5-game average of 4.6 and a strong Confidence Score of 93 support the over, especially in a series where his all-around involvement continues to increase.

Risk Factors

  • Knicks allow 3rd least rebounds per game in NBA

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Francisco Lindor +550

  • Matt Olson +270

  • Austin Hays +400

  • Pete Crow-Armstrong +550

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. +385

  • Eugenio Suarez +350

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Tyrese Haliburton OVER 4.5 Rebounds (+105 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 4.6 Reb/G over last 5 games

    • Haliburton has stepped up on the glass in the playoffs, averaging 5.5 rebounds per game

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Hunter Brown OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-129 Pinnacle)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 9 K/G in L5

  • Facing a Rays lineup that strikes out frequently, averaging 8.48 Ks per game overall and 9.17 Ks per game at home

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Oneil Cruz UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100 ESPN Bet)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging .4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • His recent struggles are underscored by a .143 batting average in May and .191 at home on the season

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team