Beating the Books: Daily MLB & NBA Edges That Cash

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 23, 2025

We went 1-2 on the diamond yesterday, but we're ready to bounce back with a huge MLB slate and a few juicy NBA playoff matchups. We’ve locked in some plus-money plays the books still haven’t adjusted to — let’s take advantage. Time to cash in!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/22): 1-2 (33%)

MLB: 30-25 (55%)

NBA: 111-84 (57%)

April ‘25: 42-32 (56%)

All-Time: 151-124 (55%)

🎯 J.P. Crawford OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 H/G

  • Season Average: .68 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

J.P. Crawford’s hit prop is sitting at 0.5, and with a best price of -125 on DraftKings, there’s solid value in backing the over. He’s coming off a 2-hit game and has been consistently productive at the plate, averaging 1.4 hits over his last five games and 1 per game over his last three. He’s cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10, showing a reliable trend of getting on base. Sean Newcomb has been hittable—allowing 24 hits in just 17.1 innings pitched—which sets up an even more favorable matchup. With a confidence score of 92, this looks like a sharp spot to trust Crawford to grab at least one knock.

Risk Factors

  • .214 batting average against LHP

  • 0-4 career against Newcomb

🎯 Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Walks

Best Price: +130 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Walk

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 BB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 BB/G

  • Season Average: .875 BB/G

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Bryce Harper’s walk prop at over 0.5 is offering strong value at +130 on DraftKings, especially given his recent plate discipline and history against tonight’s pitcher. Harper is averaging 1 walk per game over both his last 3 and 5 games, and he’s hit this number in 4 of his last 5 outings. On the season, he's drawing walks at a solid clip of 0.875 per game. He’s also seen David Peterson well, posting a 1.132 OPS with 4 walks and 8 hits in just 21 at-bats against him. With Peterson issuing 8 walks in 22 innings this season, Harper has both the eye and the matchup to capitalize. An 86 confidence score backs this as a sharp plus-money play.

Risk Factors

  • Dependent on strike zone and pitchers control

🎯 Boston Red Sox Moneyline

Best Price: -134 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Won

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2-1

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4-1

  • Season Average: 14-11

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 Won

  • 4 out of last 5 Won

Key Analysis

The Red Sox moneyline at -134 on FanDuel looks like a strong value play backed by recent form and a highly favorable pitching matchup. Boston has won 6 of their last 7 games and carries a 4-1 record over their last five, pushing their season mark to 14-11. They’re facing Emerson Hancock, who’s struggled mightily with a bloated 12.71 ERA, giving up 8 runs on 12 hits in just 5.2 innings pitched. Boston’s bats have been hot, and with an 88 confidence score backing this pick, this moneyline play has both momentum and matchup in its corner.

Risk Factors

  • Mariners strong offense

🎯 Ty Jerome OVER 14.5 Points + Rebounds

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 33 PR

  • Last 3-Game Average: 25.67 PR/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 25.6 PR/G

  • Season Average: 15.3 PR/G

  • Confidence Score: 94

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Ty Jerome’s OVER 14.5 Points + Rebounds is looking like a sharp play (+100 on DraftKings). He’s crushed this line lately, averaging 25.6 PR over his last five games and 25.67 over his last three, with a perfect 5-for-5 hit rate in that span. His season average of 15.3 PR slightly edges out the line, but his performance against Miami tells the real story—he’s averaged 19.3 PR/G in three regular-season meetings and dropped 33 PR in their first playoff matchup. With 8 of his last 10 games going over and a confidence score of 94, this plus-money prop is riding strong momentum and a proven matchup edge.

Risk Factors

  • Possible reduction in minutes

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Matt Olson +280

  • Juan Soto +310

  • Shohei Ohtani +350

  • Eugenio Suarez +380

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Ty Jerome OVER 14.5 Points + Rebounds (+100 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 25.6 PR/G over last 5 games

    • Against Miami - averaged 19.3 PR/G in three regular-season meetings and dropped 33 PR in their first playoff matchup

Trending Overs

1. 📈 J.P. Crawford OVER 0.5 Hits (-125 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.4 H/G in L5

  • Newcomb has been hittable—allowing 24 hits in just 17.1 innings pitched

2. ⚡ Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Walks (+130 DraftKings)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1 BB/G over last 5 games

  • Seen David Peterson well, posting a 1.132 OPS with 4 walks and 8 hits in just 21 at-bats against him. With Peterson issuing 8 walks in 22 innings this season, Harper has both the eye and the matchup to capitalize

3. 💥 Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-134 FanDuel)

  • 6/L7 games Won

  • Averaging 5.33 R/G over last 3

  • Facing Emerson Hancock, who’s struggled mightily with a bloated 12.71 ERA, giving up 8 runs on 12 hits in just 5.2 innings pitched

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team