Best NBA Props Tonight: Trends You Can Trust

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 03, 2025

Table of Contents

We went 1-2 on straight bets yesterday, with the Pistons coming up just four points short—failing to score in the final four minutes. Tough break. On the bright side, we cashed an MLB parlay and missed another by just one Hit/Run/RBI. Overall, a solid day. Today's a bit slower with just six NBA games and five MLB matchups, so we’ll keep it simple and find the best spots to make some money.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/02): 1-2 (33%)

NBA: 104-79 (57%)

April ‘25: 4-2 (67%)

All-Time: 114-94 (55%)

🎯 Toumani Camara OVER 1.5 Threes

Best Price: -136 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 threes

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.7 3PM/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 3PM/G

  • Season Average: 1.7 3PM/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Toumani Camara’s OVER 1.5 threes looks like a strong bet based on his recent shooting trends. He’s averaging 2.7 threes per game over his last three and 2.8 over his last five, both well above the prop line and his season average of 1.7 3PM/G. The hottest indicator? He’s hit this over in 9 of his last 10 games, including a perfect 5-for-5 in his most recent stretch. Plus, he knocked down five threes in his last matchup against the Raptors, signaling a favorable matchup. With his volume and efficiency trending up, this looks like a sharp play.

Risk Factors

  • Raptors only allow 13.3 3PM/G to opponents

  • Low Floor

🎯 Mike Conley OVER 11.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -132 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 17 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 17.7 PA/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 14.2 PA/G

  • Season Average: 13 PA/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Mike Conley’s OVER 11.5 Points + Assists looks like a strong play given his recent production. He’s averaging 17.7 PA over his last three games. His season average of 13 PA/G suggests a solid cushion above tonight’s line. More importantly, he’s hit this over in 9 of his last 10 games, including four of his last five. With consistent involvement in both scoring and playmaking, plus a strong recent trend, this prop looks like a smart bet.

Risk Factors

  • Heavy favorites against the Nets

🎯 Tyler Herro UNDER 2.5 Turnovers

Best Price: +100 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 0 TO

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.3 TO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 TO/G

  • Season Average: 2.5 TO/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Tyler Herro’s UNDER 2.5 turnovers at +100 on ESPN Bet offers solid value based on his recent ball security. He’s averaging just 1.3 turnovers over his last three games and 2.0 over his last five, both below the prop line. Even though his season average sits right at 2.5 TO/G, his recent trend is clear—he’s stayed under in 8 of his last 10 games, including four of his last five. With a zero-turnover performance last game and just 2 TO in his last matchup with Memphis, this under looks like a sharp bet at plus money.

Risk Factors

  • As many as 8 TO in a single game this season

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Mike Conley OVER 11.5 PA (-132 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Averaging 17.7 PA/G over last 3

    • Recent averages, which are well above season average, provide much cushion over tonight’s line

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Toumani Camara OVER 1.5 Threes (-136 FanDuel)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.7 3PM/G in L7

  • Knocked down five threes in his last matchup against the Raptors

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Tyler Herro UNDER 2.5 Turnovers (+100 ESPN Bet)

  • Strong trend but has had as high as 8 turnovers in a game this season and Memphis forces the 8th most turnovers per game in the NBA this season

  • Zero-turnover performance last game and just 2 TO in his last matchup with Memphis

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team