Yesterday snapped our week-long winning streak, finishing 1-2. Vientos couldn’t find a gap, while Tovar continued his hot streak with back-to-back games of 5+ H/R/RBI. After the run we’ve been on, a small setback was bound to happen — but we’re still firmly in the green for the month. Let’s regroup and lock in some winners today.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/19): 1-2 (33%; -1.29 units)

MLB: 77-65 (54%; +17.16 units)

NBA: 115-86 (57%; +41.4 units)

May ‘25: 38-24 (61%; +6.65 units)

All-Time: 202-166 (55%; +52 units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +136 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 5 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 TB/G

• Season Average: 1.69 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Cody Bellinger’s Over 1.5 Total Bases prop at +136 on Pinnacle offers solid value given both recent form and matchup data. He’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of the last five, with a scorching 3-game average of 5 total bases and a season average of 1.69 TB/G—just above the line. His recent surge includes a 7-total-base performance last game, and the momentum is backed by a 92 confidence score. The matchup also favors Bellinger: he’s hitting .400 in 20 career at-bats vs. Patrick Corbin, and the Rangers lefty has given up 36 hits in his last 7 starts. Add in Bellinger’s elite .387 batting average and 1.109 OPS against lefties this season, and this prop shapes up as a high-upside play at plus money.

Risk Factors

• Will need XBH or multi-hit game to cash

🎯 Austin Riley UNDER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Average: 2.277 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 1 out of last 3 under

• 3 out of last 5 under

• 7 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Austin Riley’s Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –135 on ESPN Bet looks like the sharper play given his recent splits and this matchup. While Riley’s season average sits at 2.277 H/R/RBIs per game, he’s gone under in 7 of his last 10, including 3 of the last 5 and 1 of the last 3, suggesting regression toward the mean. His 5‑game average of 2.4 is flirting with the line, but that spike comes largely from one big outing (6 H/R/RBIs last game)—remove that and his recent form is closer to this Under. Mitchell Parker has also been tough on Riley, who’s just 1-for-9 against him, and Riley’s .250 road average (and .282 vs. LHP) is well below his home splits. Parker’s allowed 24 runs on 41 hits over his last 50 IP, but his strike‑throwing and soft‑contact mix should keep Riley from piling up three combined H/R/RBIs. Back the Under at –135 with solid confidence.

Risk Factors

• Riley has swung a hot bat in recent games

🎯 Isaac Paredes OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -109 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Average: 1.978 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Confidence Score: 79

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Isaac Paredes’ Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –109 on Caesars is well-priced given his consistency and strong underlying metrics. He’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games, including a perfect 3-for-3 stretch lately, while averaging 3 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 2.6 over his last 5. His season average of 1.978 also suggests long-term value slightly above the line. The matchup adds further appeal: Paredes is hitting .285 against righties and an impressive .341 with runners in scoring position, both ideal against Zack Littell, who’s allowed 26 runs and 51 hits over his last 9 starts. With momentum, favorable splits, and a beatable pitcher, this Over offers strong value just shy of even money.

Risk Factors

• First time facing Littell

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• DJ LeMahieu +950

• Kyle Stowers +500

• Kerry Carpenter +425

• Bryce Harper +265

• Wilmer Flores +800

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+136 Pinnacle)

   • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

   • 3.8 TB/G over last 5 games

   • Bellinger is hitting .400 in 20 career at-bats vs. Patrick Corbin, and the Rangers lefty has given up 36 hits in his last 7 starts. Plus, Bellinger has an elite .387 batting average and 1.109 OPS against lefties this season

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Isaac Paredes OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-109 Caesars)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• Paredes is hitting .285 against righties and an impressive .341 with runners in scoring position, both ideal against Zack Littell, who’s allowed 26 runs and 51 hits over his last 9 starts

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Austin Riley UNDER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)

• 7/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging 2.4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• Mitchell Parker has been tough on Riley, who’s just 1-for-9 against him, and Riley’s .250 road average (and .282 vs. LHP) is well below his home splits

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team