Buckets, Bombs & Bankrolls: Where Data Meets the Daily Grind

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 13, 2025

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Join the sharpest sports bettors in the game at WagerLens.com. Our cutting-edge platform gives you the tools, data, and insights you need to make smarter bets.

With WagerLens, you'll unlock access to:

  • Advanced analytics & proprietary algorithms

  • Intuitive tools for market analysis

  • Expert educational content

  • A passionate community of winning bettors

Join WagerLens now and start betting smarter!

For daily plays and insights, be sure to follow WagerLens on X as we keep you updated on the action!

Table of Contents

We went 3-1 on our MLB picks yesterday, keeping the momentum rolling. Today, we’ve got a full slate: 15 MLB games and a wild 15-game NBA finale. It’s the last day of the NBA regular season, and several playoff spots are still up for grabs. Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/12): 3-1 (75%)

MLB: 13-11 (54%)

NBA: 109-83 (57%)

April ‘25: 22-17 (56%)

All-Time: 132-109 (55%)

🎯 Delano Banton UNDER 2.5 Threes Made

Best Price: -137 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 0 3PM

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.7 3PM/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 3PM/G

  • Season Average: 1 3PM/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Delano Banton’s Under 2.5 Threes Made is strongly supported by both his recent shooting trends and historical performance against the Lakers. Over his last 10 games, he’s stayed under this line in every single one. His season average sits at 1 3PM, and he’s cooled off even more lately—hitting just 0.7 threes per game over his last 3 and 1.2 over his last 5. Most notably, he’s failed to clear this number in three straight matchups against the Lakers, averaging .667 3PM/G in their matchups this season. With a perfect 10-for-10 to the under and a favorable matchup, there’s strong value in backing the Under.

Risk Factors

  • Long Trailblazers injured list

🎯 Payton Pritchard UNDER 4.5 Threes Made

Best Price: -133 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 3PM

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.7 3PM/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 3PM/G

  • Season Average: 3.2 3PM/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Payton Pritchard’s Under 4.5 Threes Made looks like a strong play based on both his recent output and overall trends. Despite a 4-three outing in his last game, he’s averaging just 1.7 made threes over his last 3 and 2.2 over his last 5—well below the 4.5 line. Even his season average of 3.2 threes per game doesn’t come close to the number he’d need to clear here. He’s stayed under this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including a perfect 5-for-5 to the under recently. He’s also failed to hit 5+ threes in 2 of 3 matchups against Charlotte this season. With that kind of consistency and a favorable matchup, the -133 price on Caesars offers solid value for another under.

Risk Factors

  • High floor for 3PM/G

  • Lengthy injured list for Boston

🎯 Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.667 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Batting Average: .365 average

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs stands out as a high-upside play, backed by elite recent form and a favorable matchup. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs over his last 5 and 2.667 over his last 3. Tatis enters with a red-hot .365 batting average on the season and has a solid track record against tonight’s pitcher, Kyle Freeland, batting .292 against him in his career. Freeland has also been hittable out of the gate, giving up 19 hits and 8 runs across his first three starts. With momentum and matchup in his favor, the -135 price on BetMGM offers strong value for Tatis to stay hot.

Risk Factors

  • Can depend on other teammates performance

🎯 Jonah Bride UNDER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -145 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 0 singles

  • Last 3-Game Average: .333 singles per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: .2 singles per game

  • Season Batting Average: .081

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Jonah Bride’s Under 0.5 Singles is well-supported by both his own struggles at the plate and a tough pitching matchup. He’s batting just .081 on the season and has recorded a single in only 2 of his last 10 games, averaging just 0.2 singles over his last 5. He’s also hit the under in 8 of those 10 games and comes into tonight hitless in his career against MacKenzie Gore. Gore has been sharp to start the season, racking up 25 strikeouts over 17 innings in his first three starts. With Bride’s cold bat and Gore’s dominant form, the -145 price on DraftKings offers solid value on the under.

Risk Factors

  • Finding a gap in defense

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Payton Pritchard UNDER 4.5 Threes Made (-133 Caesars)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Season average of 3.2 threes per game

    • Failed to hit 5+ threes in 2 of 3 matchups against Charlotte this season

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 BetMGM)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs over his last 5 games

  • Freeland has also been hittable out of the gate, giving up 19 hits and 8 runs across his first three starts

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Delano Banton UNDER 2.5 Threes Made (-137 Pinnacle)

  • 10/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging 1.2 3PM/G over his last 5

  • Failed to clear this number in three straight matchups against the Lakers, averaging .667 3PM/G

2. ⬇️ Jonah Bride UNDER 0.5 Singles (-145 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 0.2 singles per game over his last 5

  • Gore has been sharp to start the season, racking up 25 strikeouts over 17 innings in his first three starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team