Climbing the Ladder: Cashing High Probability MLB Props

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 27, 2025

We finished a modest 2-3 yesterday, picking up wins in both the NBA and MLB. MLB has been volatile lately, but we’re staying profitable and cashing some strong parlays over on X. This week, we're kicking off an MLB ladder challenge while continuing to roll out straight plays backed by solid data and research.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/26): 2-3 (40%)

MLB: 37-36 (51%)

NBA: 115-84 (58%)

April ‘25: 52-43 (55%)

All-Time: 162-135 (55%)

🪜 WagerLens Ladder Challenge

A betting ladder challenge is where you start with a small stake and try to grow it by making a series of consecutive bets, reinvesting all winnings each time. You usually bet on heavy favorites to lower the risk. If you win every step, your small start can turn into a big payout — but if you lose once, the ladder ends.

  • Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Hits (-220 on DraftKings)

  • Gavin Lux OVER 0.5 Hits (-275 on DraftKings)

  • Total Odds -102

  • $10 → $19.83

🎯 Byron Buxton OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.4 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Byron Buxton’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs looks like a strong play tonight at -140 on DraftKings. Buxton has been producing consistently, clearing this number in 7 of his last 10 games. His recent averages — 3.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 2.8 over his last 5 — are well above the 1.5 line. He’s also outperforming his season average of 2.4 H/R/RBIs. Facing Jose Soriano, who’s allowed 14 runs and 30 hits in just 29 innings, Buxton should have plenty of opportunities, especially since he’s batting .320 with runners in scoring position and has shown power against righties with 5 HR and 13 RBIs.

Risk Factors

  • Slight drop in BA against RHP

🎯 Kris Bubic OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -136 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 SO

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5.67 SO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 6.6 SO/G

  • Season Average: 6.6 SO/G

  • Confidence Score: 76

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Kris Bubic’s OVER 4.5 Strikeouts at -136 on FanDuel is shaping up as a solid play. Bubic has been in strong form, clearing this number in 5 straight games. His strikeout averages — 5.67 over his last 3 games and 6.6 over his last 5 — comfortably exceed the 4.5 line. He also gets a favorable matchup against a Houston lineup that's averaging 8.23 strikeouts per game, and an even higher 9.0 K/G on the road.

Risk Factors

  • If Houstons bats start hot, may not go deep into game

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Aaron Judge (Game 1) +245

  • Lawrence Butler +500

  • Teoscar Hernandez +340

  • Dansby Swanson +650

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Kris Bubic OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-136 on FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in first 5 games

    • Averaging 6.6 SO/G to start the season

    • Houston lineup averaging 8.23 strikeouts per game, and an even higher 9.0 K/G on the road

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Byron Buxton OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 7/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.4 H/R/RBIs per Game on the season

  • Facing Jose Soriano, who’s allowed 14 runs and 30 hits in just 29 innings

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team