We swept last week’s international matchup, going 3-0 for +2.67 units, and the goal stays the same this week, profit and momentum. This time we’re dealing with a matchup that’s a little less predictable, with two teams that can be boom-or-bust on any given Sunday, but we’ve identified plays that carry a clear statistical edge. As always, we’re attacking the numbers, not the narratives. And if you’re not already locked in on X, make sure you are, we’ve been stacking NBA wins over there and the heater is very much alive. Let’s keep it rolling.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

NFL: 71-77 (48%; +0.62 Units)

November ‘25: 19-18 (51%; -0.71 Units)

All-Time: 436-395 (52%; +54.5 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts

Best Price: -110 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 11 carries

• Last 3-Game Average: 10.67 carries/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 12.4 carries/g

• Season Average: 10.5 carries/g

• Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s rushing attempts line of 8.5 looks like a strong over spot based on both recent usage and consistency. He’s averaging 10.5 carries per game on the season and has gone over this number in five straight, including three consecutive double-digit carry games. Over his last three outings, he’s averaged 10.7 attempts, and across his last five, that number jumps to 12.4, showing a steady workload regardless of game script. Croskey-Merritt’s role as a reliable early-down option continues to hold, and with his recent efficiency, coaching trends suggest his volume should remain stable. At this modest number, the over aligns perfectly with his established usage rate.

Risk Factors

• Dolphins defense has been strong against the run in recent games

🎯 De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown

Best Price: +123 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 TDs

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 TD/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 0.80 TD/G

• Season Average: 0.90 TD/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 Over

• 3 out of last 5 Over

• 7 out of last 10 Over

Key Analysis

De’Von Achane’s Anytime Touchdown (+123) comes with strong value considering his scoring profile and the matchup. Achane has 9 touchdowns on the season, with a nearly perfect balance, 5 rushing and 4 receiving, giving him multiple scoring paths both on the ground and through the air. He’s found the end zone in 7 of his last 10 games, including 2 touchdowns last week, showing that Miami continues to feature him in high-leverage situations. The matchup adds clear upside, the Commanders allow 3.1 total touchdowns per game, broken down into 2.2 passing and 0.9 rushing, meaning both phases are viable scoring routes for Achane’s skillset. With his explosive play ability, red-zone usage, and big-yardage upside, +123 presents meaningful value for a player capable of scoring from anywhere on the field.

Risk Factors

• Dan Quinn will be taking the defensive play calling over for the Commanders which they hope will be the change they need

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🎯 Jaylen Waddle OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -117 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 84 yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 88.33 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 75 yds/g

• Season Average: 67 yds/g

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 5 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jaylen Waddle’s receiving line of 77.5 yards lines up well with both recent production and matchup. He’s cleared this mark in three straight games and four of his last five, averaging 88.3 yards per game over his last three and 75 over his last five. Waddle continues to operate as Miami’s high-leverage intermediate and deep threat, averaging 6.6 targets per game at an efficient 14.6 yards per reception, meaning he can cover large chunks of yardage quickly. The matchup adds even more upside, the Commanders are allowing 260.2 passing yards per game on the season, and that number has ballooned to 311.3 per game over their last three, with repeated breakdowns in coverage against explosive receivers.

Risk Factors

• Possible defensive resurgence for Washington

🎯 Dolphins Vs Commanders OVER 46.5 Total Points

Best Price: -120 on BetRivers

Key Analysis

The Dolphins vs. Commanders OVER 46.5 (-120) projects tightly to the number on paper, but the matchup leans toward higher scoring. Based on season averages in points scored and points allowed, as well as trends over the last three games, the expected total sits right around 47 points, lining up almost exactly with the posted line. However, the bigger story is how these teams allow points, both defenses have consistently surrendered far more than they score, creating volatility but also frequent shootout environments. Washington’s pass defense has been one of the softest in the league, while Miami comes into this game with confidence and momentum after knocking off the Bills last week, and their offense tends to stay aggressive regardless of scoreboard. This matchup carries a realistic path to a defenseless shootout, especially if early possessions produce touchdowns rather than field goals.

Risk Factors

• Two 3-7 teams with volatile team performance

Think line movement doesn’t matter? Think again.

Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team