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Cracking the Code: MLB Matchups, Props & Profitable Angles
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Sage Davis
May 03, 2025
We went 2-1 yesterday with one play marked as DNP. Today’s a big one—Saturday brings a full slate of MLB action, and we’ve got a do-or-die Game 7 between the Clippers and Nuggets. Let’s break down the board and lock in the best plays to cash in.
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (05/02): 2-1 (66%; +0.5 Units)
NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.4 Units)
MLB: 41-43 (49%; +10 Units)
May ‘25: 2-1 (66%; +0.5 Units)
All-Time: 166-143 (56%; +46 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Luis Robert OVER 0.5 Hits
Best Price: -137 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 Hits
Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/G
Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 H/G
Season Average: .655 H/G
Confidence Score: 86
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
Key Analysis
Luis Robert’s hit prop at over 0.5 hits (-137 on Caesars) looks like a strong value play today. He’s been red-hot at the plate, recording hits in each of his last five games with an impressive 1.67 hits per game over his last three. That’s well above his season average of 0.655 hits per game, indicating he's in a groove right now. The matchup is favorable too—Robert is 5-for-9 lifetime against Astros starter Hunter Brown, including a home run, and Brown has already surrendered 24 hits across 37 innings this season.
Risk Factors
White Sox unpredictable
Hunter Brown has been good this season (4-1)
🎯 Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 Singles
Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 Singles per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 Singles per Game
Season Average: .73 Singles per Game
Confidence Score: 91
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Jeremy Peña’s singles prop at over 0.5 (-130 on DraftKings) offers solid value given his recent form and the favorable matchup. He’s recorded at least one single in each of his last five games, averaging 1.33 singles over his last three and 1.2 over his last five—well above his season average of 0.73. He’s hit this prop in 8 of his last 10 games, showing consistent contact and good discipline at the plate. Facing Davis Martin, who’s allowed 33 hits in just 33.1 innings, Peña is in a prime position to continue his streak.
Risk Factors
XBH will not cash
First time facing Martin
🎯 Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Walks
Best Price: +110 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 1 BB
Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 BB/G
Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 BB/G
Season Average: .75 BB/G
Confidence Score: 77
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 7 over
Key Analysis
Pete Alonso’s walk prop over 0.5 (+110 on DraftKings) stands out as a value bet with both recent performance and matchup data pointing in its favor. Alonso has walked in seven straight games, averaging 1.67 walks over his last three and 1.4 over his last five—nearly double his season average of 0.75. His plate discipline has clearly sharpened, and he draws a matchup against Erick Fedde, who has issued 16 walks in just 32.2 innings this season. Alonso also has a strong history of patience against Fedde, drawing six walks in their past meetings.
Risk Factors
.375 Avg vs Fedde, will be looking to hit
🎯 Athletics Moneyline
Best Price: +107 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: Won
Last 3-Game Average: 2-1
Last 5-Game Average: 4-1
Season Average: 17-15
Confidence Score: 80
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 won
4 out of last 5 won
7 out of last 10 won
Key Analysis
The Athletics moneyline at +107 on Pinnacle offers intriguing value given their recent form and matchup edge. Oakland has won four of its last five and seven of its last ten, riding a hot streak that's pushed their record to 17-15 on the season, including an impressive 11-6 mark on the road. They’ll face Max Meyer, who’s struggled early with 12 earned runs on 30 hits across his first six starts. Miami hasn’t provided much resistance either, giving up an average of 6.2 runs per game and holding just an 8-8 home record.
Risk Factors
Bido has been hittable
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Anthony Volpe +600
Jose Altuve +600
Wilmer Flores +800
Eugenio Suarez +240
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Walks (+110 DraftKings)
Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5
Averaging .75 BB/G this season
Fedde has issued 16 walks in just 32.2 innings this season. Alonso has drawn six walks in their past meetings.
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Luis Robert OVER 0.5 Hits (-137 Caesars)
Hot streak: 5/5 in L5
Averaging 1.4 H/G in L5
Robert is 5-for-9 lifetime against Astros starter Hunter Brown, including a home run, and Brown has already surrendered 24 hits across 37 innings this season
2. ⚡ Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 Singles (-130 DraftKings)
5/5 games going OVER
1.2 H/G over last 5 games
Facing Davis Martin, who’s allowed 33 hits in just 33.1 innings
3. 💥 Athletics Moneyline (+107 Pinnacle)
4/L5 games going OVER
Athletics 11-6 on the road, Marlins 8-8 at home
Facing Max Meyer, who’s struggled early with 12 earned runs on 30 hits across his first six starts
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team