We went 2-2 yesterday, just missing a winner as Miles Mikolas was pulled early after only 69 pitches—falling one walk short of cashing. Today, we’ve got 11 MLB games on deck and the Celtics looking to take control with a second straight win at the Garden. Let’s lock in and keep building momentum.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/11): 2-2 (50%; -0.66 Units)

MLB: 59-58 (50%; +8.86 Units)

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)

May ‘25: 20-16 (56%; -0.64 Units)

All-Time: 184-158 (54%; +45.05 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Alec Bohm OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -130 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 1B

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

• Season Average: .784 1B/G

• Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Alec Bohm’s prop for OVER 0.5 singles at -130 on FanDuel presents strong value given his recent form and the favorable matchup. Bohm has hit the over in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 5, averaging 1.33 singles per game over his last 3 and 1.2 over his last 5. His season average of 0.784 singles per game is solid, but it’s his recent surge and matchup edge that stand out. He’s hitting .344 in May and .286 against Matthew Liberatore specifically, a lefty who has allowed 33 hits over his last 7 starts. Bohm's .250 average vs LHP isn't elite, but his upward trend and prior success against Liberatore boost confidence.

Risk Factors

• XBH wont cash

🎯 Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -120 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 8 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 3-Game Average: 6.33 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 5.6 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 3.786 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 96

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jackson Merrill’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -120 on BetMGM is supported by elite recent production and a favorable matchup. Merrill has cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of the last 5, averaging 6.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games—well above the required threshold. His season average sits at 3.786, but he’s been on a tear lately, highlighted by an 8 H/R/RBI game most recently. He’s also batting .438 with runners in scoring position, showing he’s capitalizing on key opportunities. Facing Yusei Kikuchi, who’s given up 15 runs, 37 hits, and 20 walks over his last 7 starts, Merrill is in a strong position to keep producing.

Risk Factors

• Kikuchi’s last 2 starts only allowed 3 ER

🎯 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 5 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 TB/G

• Season Average: 3 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Aaron Judge’s OVER 1.5 Total Bases at -125 on ESPN Bet offers strong value backed by elite recent production and a great matchup. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of the last 3, while averaging 5 total bases over his last 3 games and 3.8 over his last 5—far surpassing the required number. On the season, he’s averaging 3 TB per game and has been particularly dominant against right-handed pitching, batting .395 with 19 extra-base hits (9 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers). He’s also thriving on the road, hitting .429 away from Yankee Stadium. With Emerson Hancock allowing 30 hits over his last 5 starts, the matchup further boosts confidence.

Risk Factors

• Without XBH, will need multi-hit game

🎯 Cal Quantrill UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed

Best Price: +145 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 BB

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 BB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2 BB/G

• Season Average: 1.571 BB/G

• Confidence Score: 74

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 3 out of last 5 under

Key Analysis

Cal Quantrill’s UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed at +145 on DraftKings is a high-risk, high-reward prop with some promising indicators. He’s stayed under this line in each of his last 3 starts and is averaging just 0.67 walks per game over his last 3 outings. While his 5-game average sits at 2 BB/G, that number is skewed by outlier performances with 5 and 3 walks. His season average of 1.571 BB/G is right near the line, but recent control suggests improvement. The Cubs average 3.9 walks per game as a team but only drew 2 in their last game, hinting at possible regression.

Risk Factors

• Batters plate discipline and umpire’s zone large factor

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Kyle Tucker +425

• Ryan McMahon +425

• Manny Machado +360

• Mike Yastrzemski +550

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 BetMGM)

   • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

   • Averaging 5.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

   • Batting .438 with runners in scoring position. Facing Yusei Kikuchi, who’s given up 15 runs, 37 hits, and 20 walks over his last 7 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Alec Bohm OVER 0.5 Singles (-130 FanDuel)

• Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

• Averaging 1.2 singles per game in L5

• Hitting .344 in May and .286 against Matthew Liberatore specifically, a lefty who has allowed 33 hits over his last 7 starts

2. ⚡ Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125 ESPN Bet)

• 4/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 3.4 TB/G over L5

• On the season, he’s averaging 3 TB per game and has been particularly dominant against right-handed pitching, batting .395 with 19 extra-base hits (9 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers)

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Cal Quantrill UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed (+145 DraftKings)

• 3/L3 games staying UNDER

• Has walked just 2 batters in his last 3 starts (14.1 IP)

• While his 5-game average sits at 2 BB/G, that number is skewed by outlier performances with 5 and 3 walks

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team