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Dingers, Data & Dollar Signs: MLB Props That Pay
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Sage Davis
April 12, 2025
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Table of Contents
Welcome to another action-packed Saturday of MLB! We went 3-2 yesterday (2-1 MLB, 1-1 NBA). Thought we were onto something with Obi Toppin—line movement and that long Pacers injury report had us optimistic—but he finished with just 4 points and didn’t see the floor in the final 20+ minutes. No NBA on the board today, so we’re locking in on baseball.
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (04/11): 3-2 (60%)
MLB: 10-10 (50%)
April ‘25: 19-16 (54%)
All-Time: 129-108 (54%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 New York Mets Moneyline
Best Price: -134 on FanDuel
Recent Performance
Last Game: Win
Last 3-Game Average: 2-1
Last 5-Game Average: 4-1
Season Average: 9-4
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 won
4 out of last 5 won
8 out of last 10 won
Key Analysis
The Mets are rolling right now, winning 80% of their last 10 and coming off a 9-4 start to the season. They’re putting up a respectable 4 runs/game and now face an A’s squad that’s still figuring things out. Further supporting the Mets Moneyline, Peterson has been solid through his first two starts, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.53 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 10.2 innings. While his WHIP sits at 1.50, indicating some traffic on the bases, he's managed to limit the damage effectively. Notably, he recorded 9 strikeouts in his season debut against Miami, showcasing his ability to miss bats .Market consensus is hovering around -135, and we’re locking in the slight value at FanDuel.
Risk Factors
Athletics have yet to announce starting pitcher
Athletics have similar runs per game
🎯 Andrew Vaughn UNDER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -117 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 0 singles
Last 3-Game Average: 0 singles per game
Last 5-Game Average: 0.2 singles per game
Season Batting Average: .111 average
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Andrew Vaughn has been struggling at the plate, batting just .111 on the season with no singles in his last 3 games. Over his last 7 games, he's averaging 0.143 singles per game indicating a lack of consistent contact. He faces Richard Fitts, who, in his first two starts this season, has allowed 12 hits over 12 innings, with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.33 . While Fitts has been hittable, Vaughn's recent form doesn't inspire confidence in his ability to capitalize. Given Vaughn's cold streak and the matchup, the under 0.5 singles prop offers solid value.
Risk Factors
Fitts 1 hit per inning average
🎯 Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 H/R/RBI
Last 3-Game Average: 4.667 H/R/RBI per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 5.6 H/R/RBI per Game
Season Batting Average: .302 average
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Jackson Chourio has been on fire to start the season, leading the Brewers in key categories such as hits, RBIs, and slugging percentage. Over his last five games, he’s been incredibly consistent, averaging 5.6 hits, runs, and RBIs per game, while clearing tonight’s prop line in each of those contests. On the other hand, Corbin Burnes, the Diamondbacks' starting pitcher, has shown some vulnerability early on, allowing 11 hits and 6 earned runs across 9.1 innings in his first two starts. With Chourio’s red-hot bat and Burnes’ early struggles, this matchup could be a prime opportunity for the young outfielder to keep his strong momentum going.
Risk Factors
Runs and RBIs can be dependent on other teammates performance
🎯 Spencer Steer UNDER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -142 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 0 singles
Last 3-Game Average: 0 singles per game
Last 5-Game Average: 0.2 singles per game
Season Batting Average: .132 average
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Spencer Steer has been struggling at the plate to start the season, with a season batting average of just .132. Over his last five games, he has recorded only one single, which highlights his recent lack of consistent contact. The UNDER 0.5 singles prop has hit in 4 out of his last 5 games and 8 out of his last 10, reinforcing the trend of Steer's limited offensive production. Further supporting this under, Andrew Heaney is off to a strong start allowing just 9 hits and 2 runs over 12 innings. Given his current struggles and the prop's strong recent performance, the UNDER 0.5 singles at -142 on Caesars appears to be a solid bet for tonight’s matchup.
Risk Factors
Finding a gap in the defense
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Aaron Judge +255
Ryan Mountcastle +750
Carlos Santana +600
Yordan Alvarez +310
Teoscar Hernandez +425
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Andrew Vaughn UNDER 0.5 Singles (-117 Caesars)
Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5
Season Batting Average of .111
Just 5 hits over 45 at bats, 2 of which were singles
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
Hot streak: 5/5 in L5
Averaging 5.6 H/R/RBI per Game in L5
Corbin Burnes, the Diamondbacks' starting pitcher, has shown some vulnerability early on, allowing 11 hits and 6 earned runs across 9.1 innings
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Spencer Steer UNDER 0.5 Singles (-142 Caesars)
4/L5 games staying UNDER
Just 5 hits over 38 at bats, 2 of which were singles
Andrew Heaney is off to a strong start allowing just 9 hits and 2 runs over 12 innings
Watch List
1. ⚠️ New York Mets Moneyline (-134 FanDuel)
Strong trend but Athletics kept game 1 of series close and average a similar number of runs per game
Peterson has been solid through his first two starts, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.53 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 10.2 innings. While his WHIP sits at 1.50, indicating some traffic on the bases, he's managed to limit the damage effectively
Athletics have yet to announce their starting pitcher
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team