Yesterday was a huge let down. Guardians ML cashes at +132 but the Mariners give up an 8th inning lead and Arozarena struck out 3 times. We have a lopsided TNF game tonight and you can expect Josh Allen and the Bills to capitalize on the Dolphins weaknesses. We are dead even for September and looking to break into profit with tonight’s card.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/17): 1-3 (25%; -1.68 Units)

NFL: 19-18 (51%; +6.62 Units)

September ‘25: 27-33 (45%; -.06 Units)

All-Time: 360-318 (53%; +53.4 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Dalton Kincaid OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -113 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 37 Rec Yards

• Season Average: 42.5 Rec Yds/G

Key Analysis

Dalton Kincaid’s receiving line looks approachable given both his recent output and the matchup. He cleared this number last game with 37 yards and sits at a healthy season average of 42.5 yards per contest, showing he’s consistently involved in the Bills’ passing attack. The Dolphins’ defense also sets up well for him, they’ve allowed 251 passing yards per game overall, including 71.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends. That’s more than double the line posted here, suggesting that if Josh Allen continues to lean on Kincaid in the short and intermediate game, he should have multiple paths to surpass 31.5 yards.

Risk Factors

• Blowout leads to less starter reps

🎯 James Cook OVER 86.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Best Price: -114 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 135 Tot Yds

• Season Average: 118.5 Tot Yds/G

Key Analysis

James Cook’s combined rushing and receiving line at 86.5 looks like a strong angle given both his usage and the defensive matchup. He’s coming off 135 total yards last game and is averaging 118.5 per game on the season, comfortably above this mark. The Dolphins have struggled against running backs, allowing 160.5 total yards per game to the position, which suggests Cook should have multiple opportunities to produce both on the ground and as a pass-catcher. With his steady workload in Buffalo’s offense, this number sits well below both his season pace and what Miami typically surrenders.

Risk Factors

• Bills passing game is working and getting big chunk plays, shortening the field for Cook

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🎯 Josh Allen OVER 29.5 Rushing Yards

Best Price: -109 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 59 Rush Yds

• Season Average: 44.5 Rush Yds/G

Key Analysis

Josh Allen’s rushing prop at 29.5 yards looks very manageable given his volume and efficiency. He’s averaging 44.5 rushing yards per game on the season and just posted 59 last week, showing he’s not hesitating to use his legs. The Dolphins have been vulnerable to scrambling quarterbacks, allowing 8.5 QB rush attempts per game. With Allen averaging 10 attempts at 4.5 yards per carry, simple volume math suggests he can clear this line with even an average outing. If Miami’s pass rush forces him out of the pocket, his rushing upside only increases.

Risk Factors

• Allen’s OL gives him time to pass and he attempts less rushes

🎯 Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 34.5 Pass Attempts

Best Price: -107 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 32 Attempts

• Season Average: 27.5 Atts/G

Key Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa’s pass attempts prop sets up well for the under. He’s averaging just 27.5 attempts per game this season and stayed under this number last week with 32. The matchup also leans toward fewer opportunities: Buffalo leads the league in time of possession, limiting opposing offenses’ snaps, and they’ve held quarterbacks to just 20.5 attempts per game. With the Dolphins often leaning on their run game and quick strikes, and Buffalo dictating tempo, Tua could once again struggle to reach volume high enough to clear 34.5 attempts.

Risk Factors

• Bills shut down the run game and force Tua to make more passes

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team