Expecting Hot Hitters to Stay Hot

Wells, Hayes and Nimmo's get favorable matchups

Author

Sage Davis
June 13, 2025

We’ve got a full MLB slate on deck today and the board is loaded with opportunity. Several red-hot hitters are stepping into matchups against shaky arms, giving us prime spots to capitalize. After stacking up wins this week, we’re dialed in and aiming to sweep the card. Let’s ride the momentum, exploit the edges, and stack some green!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 99-95 (51%; +8 Units)

June ‘25: 12-12 (50%; -1.1 Units)

All-Time: 224-197 (53%; +42.23 Units)

🎯 Austin Wells OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Hit

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 H/G

  • Season Average: .754 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Austin Wells is in a strong position to clear his hit prop tonight against Garrett Crochet. Wells has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5 and 2 of the last 3, showing a consistent upward trend. He’s averaging 1.4 hits per game over his last five and carries a .891 OPS vs lefties—significant given Crochet is a southpaw. Wells also has encouraging history against Crochet, going 2-for-3 with a home run in their previous matchups. With Crochet allowing 39 hits over his last 7 starts—including 6 to the Yankees in his most recent outing—Wells has both the recent form and matchup edge to back the over with confidence.

Risk Factors

  • Crochet has a high K rate

🎯 Brandon Nimmo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -118 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.969 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Brandon Nimmo enters tonight’s matchup in excellent form, making the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs a strong value play. He’s cleared this line in 3 straight games and 8 of his last 10, with recent averages of 4.33 and 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 3 and 5 games, respectively—well above the season mark of 1.969. Nimmo is swinging it well in June, hitting .279 with 8 RBIs and posting a solid .791 OPS against right-handers. He faces Taj Bradley, who’s struggled mightily, allowing 20 runs on 32 hits over his last 7 starts, including a brutal 7-run outing last game. With hot bat momentum and a vulnerable pitcher on the mound, Nimmo is well-positioned to stay productive.

Risk Factors

  • 0-for-3 career vs Bradley

🎯 Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -150 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 H/G

  • Season Average: .859 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Ke’Bryan Hayes is trending in the right direction and looks like a solid bet to record at least one hit tonight. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of the last 3, while averaging 1.33 hits per game over his last 3 and 1.2 over his last 5. Hayes is hitting .290 so far in June and faces Cade Horton, who’s given up 33 hits over his last 30.2 innings and just surrendered 7 hits in his most recent outing. While Hayes has a modest .243 average vs righties, his current form and the favorable matchup make the over a high-confidence play.

Risk Factors

  • Slight drop in production on the road from Hayes

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Seiya Suzuki +425

  • Kyle Schwarber +275

  • Ronald Acuna Jr +260

  • Jake Burger +400

  • Willson Contreras +500

  • Manny Machado +400

  • Mookie Betts +600

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Brandon Nimmo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

    • Facing Taj Bradley, who’s struggled mightily, allowing 20 runs on 32 hits over his last 7 starts, including a brutal 7-run outing last game

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Austin Wells OVER 0.5 Hits (-120 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.4 H/G in L5

  • Wells carries a .891 OPS vs lefties—significant given Crochet is a southpaw who wells has encouraging history against, going 2-for-3 with a home run in their previous matchups

2. ⚡ Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 0.5 Hits (-150 ESPN Bet)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.2 H/G over last 5

  • Hayes is hitting .290 so far in June and faces Cade Horton, who’s given up 33 hits over his last 30.2 innings and just surrendered 7 hits in his most recent outing

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team