- The WagerLens Newsletter
- Posts
- Fading Starters, Targeting Trends: MLB Prop Picks with Proven Track Records
Fading Starters, Targeting Trends: MLB Prop Picks with Proven Track Records
Day games, Double headers and plus money plays
Sage Davis
May 14, 2025
We split yesterday’s picks, going 1-1, while two of our bets were rained out. Both of those rainouts — Orioles vs. Twins — will be made up today as part of a doubleheader. Woods Richardson is still expected to start for Minnesota, but Baltimore hasn’t announced their Game 2 starter yet. If Povich gets the nod, I still like the Twins moneyline and Mullins under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Let’s stay locked in and aim for some green today.
Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?
Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.
🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.
Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.
Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!
Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (05/13): 1-1 (50%; -0.25 Units)
MLB: 63-60 (51%; +10.00 Units)
NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)
May ‘25: 24-18 (57%; +0.50 Units)
All-Time: 188-160 (54%; +46.20 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 2.073 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looks like a strong bet to go over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs today, especially at the -125 price on ESPN Bet. He’s cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10, averaging 2.4 H/R/RBIs over his last five. His recent form has been impressive — he's hitting .326 in May with 5 RBIs and 9 runs already, and he’s been clutch with runners in scoring position, batting .316 in those situations. The matchup also works in his favor: Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has been struggling, allowing 19 runs, 42 hits, and 16 walks over his last 8 starts.
Risk Factors
Guerrero’s stats drop slightly against RHP
🎯 Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -148 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 2.721 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 85
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Corbin Carroll is in a strong spot to go over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs today, even at the slightly juiced -148 price on Caesars. He’s been on a tear lately, averaging 3.67 H/R/RBIs over his last three games and 2.6 over his last five, with a solid season average of 2.721. He’s hit this prop in 7 of his last 10 games, including a 5 H/R/RBI performance in his most recent outing. Carroll's splits also support the play — he’s hitting .300 against righties and an impressive .362 in day games. While he's just 1-for-4 career against Jordan Hicks, the Giants starter has been shaky, giving up 28 runs, 46 hits, and 15 walks over his last eight starts.
Risk Factors
Recent averages inflated with 3 HR in last 2 games
🎯 Jordan Hicks OVER 2.5 Earned Runs
Best Price: +126 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 ER
Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 ER/G
Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 ER/G
Season Average: 3.5 ER/G
Confidence Score: 82
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
Key Analysis
Jordan Hicks to allow over 2.5 earned runs is an appealing plus-money play at +126 on Pinnacle. He’s averaging 3.6 earned runs over his last five starts and has gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 outings. Hicks has particularly struggled early in games, with a brutal 12.38 ERA in the first inning and a 6.84 ERA in day games — both red flags heading into this matchup. He’ll face a Diamondbacks lineup that’s averaging 2.51 runs in the first five innings, setting the stage for early damage. With his season average at 3.5 earned runs per game and recent form trending in the wrong direction, this over has solid value.
Risk Factors
Hicks’ slow improvement
🎯 St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline GAME 2
Best Price: +126 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: Won
Last 3-Game Average: 3-0
Last 5-Game Average: 5-0
Season Average: 23-19
Confidence Score: 86
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 won
5 out of last 5 won
9 out of last 10 won
Key Analysis
The Cardinals moneyline in Game 2 is a strong value play at +126 on Pinnacle. St. Louis is red-hot, winning 9 of their last 10 games, including their last 5 straight. They’ve also performed well in doubleheaders, winning both ends in their last two. Aaron Nola gets the start for the opposition, but he's in poor form with a 1-6 record and 25 earned runs allowed over his last 8 outings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 23-19 on the season and playing their best baseball right now, backed by an 86 confidence score. With momentum, recent trends, and a struggling opposing pitcher, the plus money on St. Louis in Game 2 looks well worth the risk.
Risk Factors
Phillies strong offense
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Aaron Judge +210
Bryce Harper (Game 1) +450
Matt Chapman +400
Brandon Lowe +550
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline GAME 2 (+126 Pinnacle)
Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10
Aaron Nola gets the start for the opposition, but he's in poor form with a 1-6 record and 25 earned runs allowed over his last 8 outings
Performed well in doubleheaders, winning both ends in their last two
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 ESPN Bet)
Hot streak: 4/5 in L5
Averaging 2.4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
Hitting .326 in May with 5 RBIs and 9 runs already, and he’s been clutch with runners in scoring position, batting .316 in those situations. Ryan Pepiot has been struggling, allowing 19 runs, 42 hits, and 16 walks over his last 8 starts.
2. ⚡ Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-148 Caesars)
7/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 2.72 H/R/RBIs per game on the season
Jordan Hicks, the Giants starter has been shaky, giving up 28 runs, 46 hits, and 15 walks over his last eight starts
3. 💥 Jordan Hicks OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (+126 Pinnacle)
6/L7 games going OVER
Averaging 3.5 ER/G this season
Hicks has particularly struggled early in games, with a brutal 12.38 ERA in the first inning and a 6.84 ERA in day games
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team