Fading the Old, Backing the Bold: Thursday’s MLB Angles

Finding value in sharp matchups and player props

Yesterday was a frustrating one, two brutal hooks kept us from a winning day, but the reads were sharp and the process was sound. We're still up overall and heading into today with a clean card and clear edges. From fading fading veterans to backing consistent strikeout arms, today's matchups give us plenty of reason to stay aggressive. Let’s bounce back and cash in on the value sitting across this slate.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/20): 1-3 (25%; -2.05 Units)

MLB: 194-167 (54%; +22.5 Units)

August ‘25: 35-27 (57%; +4.54 Units)

All-Time: 319-268 (54%; +57.7 Units)

🎯 New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

Pitching Preview:

Sean Manaea starts for the Mets with a 1-1 record and 4.78 ERA. He allowed just 1 earned run in each of his first four appearances, but has given up 4 or more in three straight starts. Command issues and hard contact have been the main problems during this rough patch.

MacKenzie Gore takes the mound for Washington, entering with a 5-12 record and a 4.04 ERA. He’s been erratic lately, allowing 6 or more earned runs in three of his last six starts. When he’s sharp, he can miss bats, but consistency has been an issue.

Offensive Trends:

The Mets are averaging 4.49 runs per game and have exploded for 6.33 per game over their last three. The Nationals sit at 4.26 runs per game and have scored 5.00 per game over their last three. Both teams are swinging it better lately, but the Mets hold the edge in overall production.

Prop Spotlight:

Mets Moneyline – The Mets have the hotter lineup and Manaea has a more favorable matchup than Gore based on recent form.

MacKenzie Gore OVER 5.5 Strikeouts – Gore has strikeout upside and the Mets strike out over 8 times per game on average.

Jeff McNeil OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – McNeil is making consistent contact and should benefit from a lefty-on-lefty matchup with Gore.

Paul DeJong OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – DeJong remains a threat in the Nationals’ order and is well-positioned to take advantage of Manaea’s struggles.

🎯 Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Pitching Preview:

Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs with an 8-5 record and a 3.06 ERA. He’s had mixed results against Milwaukee this season, going 1-1 while allowing a total of 5 earned runs across two starts. He remains a tough lefty to square up, but the Brewers have shown they can get to him.

Quinn Priester takes the ball for Milwaukee, holding an impressive 11-2 record and a 3.48 ERA. He’s also split his two starts against the Cubs, allowing 7 earned runs in the first but bouncing back with just 2 runs allowed and a win in the rematch. He’ll look to carry that momentum into this key divisional matchup.

Offensive Trends:

Both teams are hitting at similar clips lately. The Cubs are averaging 8.50 hits per game, including 7.00 over their last 3. Milwaukee is just ahead at 8.76 hits per game with the same 7.00 average over their last 3.

Scoring-wise, the Brewers average 5.14 runs per game but have dipped to 2.67 over the last three. The Cubs are at 4.94 on the season and 4.67 in their last three, showing a bit more stability in the short term.

Prop Spotlight:

Over 6.5 Total Runs – Both lineups are capable, and with mixed results from both starters in previous matchups, this total feels low.

Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Yelich continues to be a steady force at the plate and profiles well against Imanaga’s pitch mix.

Quinn Priester OVER 4.5 Strikeouts – The Cubs have some swing-and-miss in the lineup, and Priester has shown he can work deep enough to clear this line.

Joey Ortiz OVER 0.5 Hits – Ortiz has been consistently finding ways on base and only needs one to cash this simple play.

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🎯 San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

Pitching Preview:

Justin Verlander gets the ball for San Francisco with a 1-9 record and 4.23 ERA. While not a complete disaster, he hasn’t been sharp, allowing 18 earned runs over his last 8 starts and struggling to work deep into games. His command and velocity have been inconsistent, raising concerns about his effectiveness against this Padres lineup.

Dylan Cease starts for San Diego with a 5-11 record and a 4.61 ERA. He’s had his own ups and downs, surrendering 22 earned runs across his last 8 outings. Cease faced the Giants in his most recent start, giving up 3 runs in a loss. However, he’s still generating strikeouts at a high rate and has upside when he’s in rhythm.

Offensive Trends:

San Diego enters with a 4.18 runs per game average, but that has jumped to 5.33 over their last 3, showing signs of heating up. The Giants, on the other hand, are averaging 4.02 runs per game, but have dipped to just 2.00 in their last 3, making it difficult to back them in a spot like this.

Prop Spotlight:

Padres Moneyline – With San Francisco ice-cold offensively and Verlander struggling, San Diego is in a favorable position at home.

Dylan Cease OVER 6.5 Strikeouts – Cease continues to miss bats, and the Giants’ offense has been struggling with contact.

Justin Verlander UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded – He hasn’t been going deep into games, and the Padres’ recent run production could push him out early again.

Gavin Sheets OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Sheets has been producing and offers value as part of a lineup facing a fading veteran.

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— The WagerLens Team