Happy Father’s Day and happy betting, everyone!

We’re coming off a profitable day yesterday and looking to keep the momentum rolling with a strong Sunday slate. The bats are heating up, and we’ve locked in 5 high-confidence props to close out the weekend on a high note. Whether you’re grilling with dad or sneaking some screen time during the family cookout, let’s cash some slips and celebrate with some green. Let’s make this Father’s Day a winning one!

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/14): 3-2 (67%; +0.46 Units)

MLB: 103-99 (51%; +7.16 Units)

June ‘25: 16-16 (50%; -2 Units)

All-Time: 228-201 (53%; +41.36 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Josh Lowe UNDER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 1B

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 1B/G

• Last 5-Game Average: .4 1B/G

• Season Average: .556 1B/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Josh Lowe’s UNDER 0.5 Singles prop stands out as a sharp play today, backed by both trends and matchup data. Despite logging two singles in his last game, Lowe has stayed under this line in 9 of his last 10 contests, with just 2 total singles across his last five games. His season average sits at just 0.556 singles per game, and his recent slump is backed by a concerning .130 batting average so far in June. Even more telling, he’s hitting just .195 against right-handed pitching — and he’ll face Griffin Canning, who has been in strong form, allowing only 30 hits over his last 7 starts. With a high 92 confidence score, this under has strong support from both recent form and pitcher matchup.

Risk Factors

• 2-for-4 career vs Canning

🎯 Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 1B

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

• Season Average: .812 1B/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Austin Riley’s OVER 0.5 Singles prop is well-positioned today, offering value at -110 with a strong 92 confidence score. Riley has been consistent in this market, hitting the over in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 3. He’s averaging 1.33 singles per game over his last three and 1.2 over his last five — both well above his season average of 0.812. He’ll face Austin Gomber, who’s making his first start of the season, a spot that often favors hitters adjusting to a starter’s early rhythm. Riley also holds a .311 OBP vs righties and a .321 OBP in June, suggesting solid plate discipline and contact rates. With trends and matchup in his favor, this over looks like a strong play.

Risk Factors

• XBH doesn’t cash

🎯 Tyler Freeman OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -140 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 Hit

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: .60 H/G

• Season Average: .733 H/G

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3

• 3 out of last 5

• 8 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Tyler Freeman’s OVER 0.5 Hits prop is a strong value target today at -140, backed by a solid blend of recent consistency and favorable matchup data. Freeman has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games and is riding a hot streak at the plate, batting .412 so far in June. While his recent 3- and 5-game hit averages (.67 and .60) slightly trail his season average of .733 hits per game, his splits are promising — boasting a .347 batting average against right-handers. He’ll face Clay Holmes, who has given up 35 hits across his last 7 starts, opening the door for Freeman to extend his hot stretch. With a 91 confidence score, this over holds strong statistical and matchup-driven appeal.

Risk Factors

• 2 recent games without a hit

🎯 Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -125 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 H/R/RBI

• Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.592 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 87

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 1 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Pete Alonso’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop offers solid upside at -125, supported by both long-term production and a favorable matchup. While his recent form is modest — averaging just 1 H/R/RBI over his last 3 games — Alonso has still cleared this line in 8 of his last 10, thanks to his overall season average of 2.592 H/R/RBIs per game. He’s hitting .333 in June and holds a .310 average against right-handed pitching, which aligns well with today’s matchup against Shane Baz. Baz has struggled in recent outings, giving up 40 hits over his last 7 starts, creating plenty of opportunity for Alonso to drive in or score runs. With an 87 confidence score, this prop leans toward value despite a slight dip in short-term trends.

Risk Factors

• Cashing may depend on others in the lineup to perform

🎯 Trevor Story OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 1.882 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Trevor Story’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop at +120 presents strong value with an 85 confidence score and a compelling mix of trends and matchup history. Story has gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs during that stretch, comfortably above his season average of 1.882. He’s coming off a 4 H/R/RBI performance and has historically hit well against Max Fried, boasting a .429 batting average with 2 homers and 4 RBIs in limited at-bats. While Fried has been effective overall, posting a 1.84 ERA, he’s also allowed 15 hits and 8 runs across his last three starts. Combined with Story’s .773 OPS vs lefties, this plus-money prop has both trend and matchup appeal.

Risk Factors

• Max Fried has been hot

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Adley Rutschman +800

• Austin Riley +250

• Brandon Lowe +450

• Ian Happ +500

• Fernando Tatis Jr. +500

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Trevor Story OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

   • Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

   • Story has historically hit well against Max Fried, boasting a .429 batting average with 2 homers and 4 RBIs in limited at-bats

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Singles (-110 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 1.2 singles per game in L5

• Riley holds a .311 OBP vs righties and a .321 OBP in June, suggesting solid plate discipline and contact rates

2. ⚡ Tyler Freeman OVER 0.5 Hits (-140 FanDuel)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging .67 H/G over last 3 games

• Freeman is riding a hot streak at the plate, batting .412 so far in June

3. 💥 Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 BetMGM)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 2.59 H/R/RBIs per game this season

• Alonso is hitting .333 in June and holds a .310 average against right-handed pitching, which aligns well with today’s matchup against Shane Baz

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Josh Lowe UNDER 0.5 Singles (-140 DraftKings)

• 9/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just .4 singles per game over last 5

• His season average sits at just 0.556 singles per game, and his recent slump is backed by a concerning .130 batting average so far in June

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team