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Fewer Games, Sharper Edges: Locking In High-Confidence Hitters
High Confidence Plays Backed by Form, Matchup, and History

We closed out the weekend on a high note, going 3-2 yesterday and locking in a profitable stretch both for the day and the weekend. With just seven games on today’s MLB slate, we’re narrowing the focus to two high-confidence plays. Meanwhile, Game 5 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight in OKC, where the Thunder return home as 9.5-point favorites. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and cash in to start the week strong!
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (06/15): 3-2 (60%; +0.82 Units)
MLB: 106-101 (51%; +8.0 Units)
June ‘25: 19-18 (51%; -1.16 units)
All-Time: 231-203 (53%; +42 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 J.P. Crawford OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -105 on Caesars

Recent Performance
Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4.67 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 1.912 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 85
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
J.P. Crawford is riding a hot streak at the plate and looks primed to continue producing against Lucas Giolito. He’s cleared this 1.5 H/R/RBI line in three straight games and four of his last five, averaging 4.67 H/R/RBIs over his last three contests. On the season, he's averaging 1.912 H/R/RBIs, giving this line solid long-term backing. The matchup is also favorable—Crawford owns a .879 OPS against right-handers and an even more impressive 1.059 OPS so far in June. He’s also had past success against Giolito, going 2-for-4 with a homer in previous meetings. With Giolito struggling lately—21 earned runs and 42 hits allowed over his last 33.2 innings—Crawford is in a strong spot to stay hot and cash this prop.
Risk Factors
Strong outing from Giolito last start with no runs allowed on just 3 hits
🎯 Manny Machado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -115 on BetMGM

Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.486 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 91
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Manny Machado enters today’s matchup in excellent form, consistently surpassing this 1.5 H/R/RBI mark with strong recent production. He’s hit the over in 8 of his last 10 games, including 3 of the last 5, while averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs over that 5-game stretch—well above both the prop line and his already impressive season average of 2.486. Machado has also been red-hot in June with a .967 OPS and maintains a solid .824 OPS against right-handed pitching. Notably, he’s 2-for-2 in his career against Shohei Ohtani, who is making his first pitching start since 2023 and may be shaking off some rust. With Machado’s bat locked in and a potentially vulnerable starter on the mound, this prop has high upside.
Risk Factors
Cashing may depend on others in the lineup
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber +295
Gunnar Henderson +310
Jacob Wilson +1000
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 J.P. Crawford OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 Caesars)
Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5
Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Crawford owns a .879 OPS against right-handers and an even more impressive 1.059 OPS so far in June
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Manny Machado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115 BetMGM)
Hot streak: 8/10 in L10
Averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Machado has been red-hot in June with a .967 OPS and maintains a solid .824 OPS against right-handed pitching
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team