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Finding the Hot Props with a Heavy Edge
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Sage Davis
April 09, 2025
Table of Contents
Yesterday was a solid day on the board, going 3-0 with two DNPs in the mix. Today, we’ve got a loaded MLB slate packed with day games and some key NBA matchups on tap. Let’s lock in and keep the momentum rolling—time to cash in!
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (04/08): 3-0 (100%)
MLB: 6-7 (46%)
NBA: 106-82 (56%)
April ‘25: 12-12 (50%)
All-Time: 122-104 (54%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Zach McKinstry OVER 0.5 Hits
Best Price: -121 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 Hits
Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 Hits per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 Hits per Game
Season Batting Average: .355 average
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Zach McKinstry has been a strong performer at the plate recently, making the over 0.5 hits prop highly appealing. He recorded 2 hits in his last game and is averaging 1.4 over his last 5, showing consistent contact. His season batting average sits at an impressive .355, underscoring his ability to get on base frequently. From a prop performance standpoint, McKinstry has gone over 0.5 hits in 3 straight games, 5 of his last 5, and 8 of his last 10, highlighting both short-term consistency and longer-term reliability. All signs point to this being a high-value play.
Risk Factors
Max Fried strong on the mound
🎯 Brendan Donovan OVER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -130 on FanDuel
Recent Performance
Last Game: 1 single
Last 3-Game Average: 1.667 singles per game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 singles per game
Season Batting Average: .395 average
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Brendan Donovan has been a reliable source of singles lately, making the over 0.5 singles prop a strong consideration. He notched 1 single in his last game and is averaging 1.67 singles over his last 3 games showing steady production. His outstanding .395 season batting average supports his consistent ability to put the ball in play. From a prop perspective, Donovan has hit this mark in 3 straight games, 5 of his last 5 indicating both recent momentum and solid overall performance. Further backing this over, Mitch Keller has allowed 13 hits through 2 starts and Donovan has a .744 OPS against him through 18 At Bats.
Risk Factors
Not just a Hits prop, has to be a single
🎯 Lars Nootbar OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 0 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: .667 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Batting Average: .302 average
How Has This Prop Performed?
1 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Lars Nootbaar presents an intriguing case for the over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop. While he was held to zero H/R/RBIs in his last game and is averaging just 0.667 over his last 3, this was just a small dip in production as he averaged 2.0 H/R/RBIs over his last 5. His season batting average of .302 reflects solid overall performance, and he’s hit this prop in 7 of his last 10, showing decent consistency. What really boosts the value of this play is his strong history against today's pitcher, Keller—he owns a .400 batting average and a stellar 1.217 OPS through 15 at-bats. That matchup edge adds significant upside, making the over a solid bet despite recent inconsistency.
Risk Factors
More than just a dip in production?
🎯 Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 2.5 Rebounds
Best Price: -140 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 6 rebounds
Last 3-Game Average: 4.3 RPG
Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 RPG
Season Average: 2.6 RPG
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Spencer Dinwiddie has been consistently rebounding well lately, making the over 2.5 rebounds prop a strong option. He pulled down 6 boards in his last game and is averaging 4.3 rebounds over his last 3 games and 5.2 over his last 5—both well above his season average of 2.6 RPG. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, showing a clear trend of recent over-performance. Against the Lakers, he's averaging 3.5 rebounds and has hit the over in 1 of 2 matchups, giving this prop added credibility in tonight’s matchup. Given his recent form and matchup history, the over 2.5 rebounds looks like a solid value play.
Risk Factors
Low floor for RPG
Today's Home Run Hitters
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a Home Run today based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Lars Nootbar +800
Pete Alonso +390
Heliot Ramos +600
Nick Castellanos +550
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Lars Nootbar OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 ESPN Bet)
Most consistent trend: 7/10 in L10
2.0 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5
Against today's pitcher, Keller—he owns a .400 batting average and a stellar 1.217 OPS through 15 at-bats
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 2.5 Rebounds (-140 DraftKings)
Hot streak: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 5.2 RPG in L5
Averaging 3.5 RPG against the Lakers this season
2. âš¡ Brendan Donovan OVER 0.5 Singles (-130 FanDuel)
5/L5 games going OVER
1.6 singles per game over last 5 games
Keller has allowed 13 hits through 2 starts and Donovan has a .744 OPS against him through 18 At Bats
3. 💥 Zach McKinstry OVER 0.5 Hits (-121 Caesars)
5/L5 games going OVER
1.4 hits per game over last 5 games
Season batting average sits at an impressive .355
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
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— The WagerLens Team