Finding Today's Trends with an Edge: MLB and NBA

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

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What a day yesterday was for sports bettors! Florida and Houston punched their tickets to the NCAA Championship, we split our MLB picks 1-1, and cashed a sweet parlay on X. Today, the action doesn’t slow down—with a full MLB slate and 11 NBA games on deck, there’s plenty more to lock in.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/05): 1-1 (50%)

NBA: 105-81 (57%)

MLB: 3-3 (50%)

April ‘25: 8-7 (53%)

All-Time: 118-99 (54%)

🎯 Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (1:35pm Game)

Best Price: -150 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 H/R/RBI

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBI per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBI per Game

  • Season Batting Average: .357 avg

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Nolan Arenado is in peak form right now, consistently delivering across multiple stat categories. He’s hit the over on this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in five straight games, averaging 3.33 over his last three. His season batting average sits at a strong .357, and he draws a favorable matchup today against Sean Newcomb, a pitcher he’s historically dominated. In 15 career at-bats against Newcomb, Arenado is hitting .467 with two home runs and a staggering 1.433 OPS. With his recent momentum and proven success in this matchup, the over looks like a strong play once again.

Risk Factors

  • Less favorable history with some of Red Sox Bullpen

🎯 Los Angeles Angels OVER 3.5 Runs

Best Price: -143 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 10 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 7 Runs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 7 Runs per Game

  • Season Average: 5 Runs per Game

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

The Angels' offense is rolling, and the over on 3.5 team runs looks like a strong play heading into today’s matchup. They scored 10 runs in their last game, and are averaging 7 runs per game over both their last 5 games. Even across the full season, they’re putting up a solid 5 runs per game. They've cleared this 3.5 line in five straight games, showing consistency and momentum at the plate. Adding to the upside, they'll face Guardians pitcher Ortiz, who’s coming into today’s game with a 13.50 ERA after giving up 7 runs on 9 hits in his season debut. With the Angels’ bats surging and Ortiz struggling out of the gate, this total feels very reachable.

Risk Factors

  • Ortiz finding his rhythm

🎯 Keon Johnson UNDER 4.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -146 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 rebound

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.7 RPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 RPG

  • Season Average: 3.6 RPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Keon Johnson has consistently stayed under the 4.5 rebound mark, making the under an appealing option again today. He grabbed just 1 rebound in his last game, and is averaging just 2.2 RPG over his last 5. His season average sits at 3.6 RPG, still safely under the line. He’s hit the under in 9 of his last 10 games. On top of that, Johnson has faced Toronto three times this season, averaging just 1.3 rebounds per game, and has failed to clear this line in any of those matchups. With a small rebounding role and a tough historical matchup, the under continues to offer strong value.

Risk Factors

  • Averaged 5 RPG in March

  • As many as 9 rebounds in a game this season

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Los Angeles Angels OVER 3.5 Runs (-143 Pinnacle)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 7 runs per game in L5

  • Facing Guardians pitcher Ortiz, who’s coming into today’s game with a 13.50 ERA after giving up 7 runs on 9 hits in his season debut

2. âš¡ Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150 DraftKings)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBI per Game over last 5 games

  • In 15 career at-bats against Newcomb, Arenado is hitting .467 with two home runs and a staggering 1.433 OPS

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Keon Johnson UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-146 FanDuel)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 2.2 RPG over last 5 games

  • Johnson is averaging just 1.3 RPG against Toronto this season, failing to clear tonights line in any of their 3 matchups

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team