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Firecracker Props: High-Confidence Plays to Spark Your 4th
Sharp reads on red-hot hitters, slumping bats, and starters on short leashes
Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
July 04, 2025
We’re off to a near-even start to July at 2-2, down just 0.12 units—but today’s the perfect day to flip the script. It’s a beautiful July 4th, the grills are hot, the fireworks are ready, and we’ve got five high-confidence props locked and loaded. Whether you’re poolside, at the ballpark, or just chilling with a cold one, let’s add a little extra spark to the holiday with some winning plays. Let’s light it up and stack some units today!
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
MLB: 131-113 (54%; +18.23 Units)
July ‘25: 2-2 (50%; -0.12 Units)
All-Time: 256-214 (54%; +53.43 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 JP Sears UNDER 16.5 Outs
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 17 Outs
Last 3-Game Average: 14 Outs/G
Last 5-Game Average: 14.6 Outs/G
Season Average: 15.294 Outs/G
Confidence Score: 96
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
JP Sears has struggled to work deep into games, making the under on 16.5 outs a strong play. He’s stayed under this line in 9 of his last 10 starts, with a 5-game average of 14.6 outs and a 3-game average of just 14. His season average of 15.294 also sits below the mark. Sears carries a 5.24 ERA and faces a Giants lineup averaging 3 runs in the first 5 innings over their last 3 games—enough early pressure to potentially force an early exit. With consistent trends and a tough opponent, the under holds solid value.
Risk Factors
Giants inconsistent offense
🎯 Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -145 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 1.909 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 94
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Corey Seager has been on a tear, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is well worth the juice. He’s hit this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with a 5-game average of 3.6 H/R/RBIs and a season average just under 2. He’s batting .275 vs right-handed pitching and faces Randy Vásquez, who carries a 3.84 ERA and has been hittable in recent outings. With Seager’s elite form and steady top-of-the-order role, he’s in a great position to stay hot and fill the stat sheet again.
Risk Factors
May count on others in the lineup to cash
🎯 Josh Rojas UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: +116 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 0.816 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Josh Rojas has cooled off significantly, making the under on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs a sharp plus-money play. He’s stayed under this line in 9 of his last 10 games, with a 5-game average of just 0.6 and a season average of 0.816. His 3-game average sits at just 0.67, and he’s batting a weak .178 against right-handed pitching. With limited production and a tough split, Rojas is unlikely to generate enough offense to clear this number.
Risk Factors
Senzatela has been hittable and has a high ERA
🎯 Daniel Schneemann UNDER 0.5 Hits
Best Price: +110 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 1 Hit
Last 3-Game Average: 0.33 H/G
Last 5-Game Average: 0.20 H/G
Season Average: 0.628 H/G
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Daniel Schneemann has struggled at the plate, making the under on 0.5 hits a strong plus-money play. He’s gone under this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, with a 5-game average of just 0.2 hits. He’s batting .222 overall and just .228 vs right-handed pitching. He faces Reese Olson, who’s coming off a dominant outing where he allowed just one hit. With Schneemann’s cold streak and a tough matchup, the under has solid value here.
Risk Factors
Olson has been hittable
🎯 Otto Lopez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -120 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.057 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
1 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Otto Lopez has been quietly productive, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is a solid look at -120. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, with a strong 5-game average of 2.6 and a season mark of 2.057. While his 3-game stretch has dipped slightly, he still holds a solid .351 OBP vs right-handed pitching. He faces Quinn Priester, who’s posted a respectable 3.35 ERA but has allowed traffic in most outings. With Lopez’s recent form and ability to contribute in multiple stat categories, he’s in a good spot to bounce back and clear this number.
Risk Factors
Priester allowed just 1 hit and had 11 SO in last outing
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Seiya Suzuki +295
Pete Alonso +290
Cal Raleigh +260
Junior Caminero +260
Matt Olson +330
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Josh Rojas UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+116 Caesars)
Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10
Averaging just 0.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
His 3-game average sits at just 0.67, and he’s batting a weak .178 against right-handed pitching
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145 BetMGM)
Hot streak: 5/5 in L5
Averaging 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
He’s batting .275 vs right-handed pitching and faces Randy Vásquez, who carries a 3.84 ERA and has been hittable in recent outings
2. ⚡ Otto Lopez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 DraftKings)
8/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Lopez holds a solid .351 OBP vs right-handed pitching and He faces Quinn Priester, who’s posted a respectable 3.35 ERA but has allowed traffic in most outings.
Trending Unders
1. 📉 JP Sears UNDER 16.5 Outs (-130 DraftKings)
9/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just 14.6 Outs/G over last 5
Sears carries a 5.24 ERA and faces a Giants lineup averaging 3 runs in the first 5 innings over their last 3 games
2. ⬇️ Daniel Schneemann UNDER 0.5 Hits (+110 DraftKings)
8/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just 0.2 H/G over last 5
He’s batting .222 overall and just .228 vs right-handed pitching
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team