The 2025 MLB postseason has arrived, and Round 1 didn’t disappoint. Four series headline the opening slate: Tigers vs Guardians, Red Sox vs Yankees, Reds vs Dodgers, and Padres vs Cubs, but the bigger story isn’t about one game. It’s about who can impose their identity when the pressure ramps up.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/30): 2-1 (67%; +0.69 Units)

MLB: 229-207 (53%; +16.66 Units)

All-Time: 382-342 (53%; +53.17 Units)

⚾ Key Storylines

• Tigers vs Guardians: Detroit brings power, Cleveland brings arms. Early runs matter, if the Tigers don’t strike first, Cleveland’s bullpen can flip games.

• Red Sox vs Yankees: The rivalry is back. The Yankees’ power vs Boston’s depth and pitching versatility. Oddsmakers lean New York, but Boston’s 9-4 head-to-head edge says otherwise.

• Reds vs Dodgers: Youth and speed vs star-studded muscle. The Reds can disrupt, but the Dodgers’ firepower makes them heavy favorites. Value may be in props, not moneylines.

• Padres vs Cubs: The coin-flip series. Same record, same season scoring splits. Chicago leans offense, San Diego leans pitching. Every pitch feels like a pivot point.

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Betting Takeaways

• Pitching rules October. One ace-level start can swing a series.

• Unders have appeal. Elite staffs and playoff intensity naturally suppress scoring.

• Beware public bias. Dodgers and Yankees carry inflated lines; sharp bettors should watch for hidden value on the other side.

📊 MLB Edges We’re Playing Today (10/1)

🎯 Tanner Bibee OVER 3.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -128 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 Hits Allowed

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 4.4 H/G

• Season Average: 5.484 H/G

• Confidence Score: 98

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

This line looks soft given Bibee’s track record. He’s averaging 5.5 hits allowed per game on the season and has cleared this number in 9 of his last 10 starts, including four of his last five. Bibee has also allowed 9 total hits across his last two outings against Detroit, and now faces them again after the Tigers managed three hits yesterday against Tarik Skubal, who has been far tougher to square up. With a 98 confidence score, this prop carries one of the strongest trends on the board.

Risk Factors

• Bibee averages just under 1 SO/IP this season

🎯 Carlos Rodon OVER 15.5 Outs

Best Price: +104 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 18 outs

• Last 3-Game Average: 19 Outs/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 18.6 Outs/G

• Season Average: 17.758 Outs/G

• Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Rodón has been a model of consistency, clearing this mark in 9 of his last 10 starts and averaging nearly 18 outs per outing this season. He’s stretched to 18+ outs in three straight and is limiting damage with just 1.8 earned runs per game over his last five. The matchup sets up well, Max Fried went 19 outs against Boston yesterday without allowing a run, and while Rodón has averaged just under 16 outs per start against the Red Sox this year, his recent form suggests he’s more likely to pitch deeper this time. Getting this prop at plus money adds to the value.

Risk Factors

• Boston’s patient approach and ability to drive up pitch counts quickly

🎯 Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 BB

• Last 3-Game Average: 3 BB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 BB/G

• Season Average: 1.967 BB/G

• Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Yamamoto has shown occasional command issues, averaging just under 2 walks per start on the season and clearing this number in 7 of his last 10 outings. He’s issued 3 per game over his last three and has gone over in two of his last three. The Reds bring patience to the plate, drawing 3.26 walks per game this year and taking 5 free passes just yesterday. With their lineup making pitchers work deep into counts, Yamamoto has a strong chance to issue at least two walks again.

Risk Factors

• Reds are in a must win situation which may cause them to chase pitches outside the zone

We kept the heavy lifting in the blog so this email stays bite-sized. Dive into “First Round of the 2025 MLB Playoffs: What Bettors Need to Know” for the full breakdown on match ups and edges for the first round of the 2025 MLB Post Season:

👉 Read the full breakdown to see how we’re doing it, and how you can, too.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team