Focused and Profitable: Key Picks for a Slim Slate

Backing a surging Barger and a red-hot Randy against hittable arms

We’re coming off a strong weekend, banking 6.13 units from Friday through Sunday. With a sweep today, we’ll close out June with a 62% win rate and 12 units in profit—a rock-solid month by any standard. No matter how today plays out, the momentum is real and the reads have been sharp. Let’s finish strong, carry that energy forward, and cash a few more slips to wrap up June the right way.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/29): 3-2 (60%; +0.98 Units)

MLB: 128-109 (54%; +19.25 Units)

June ‘25: 41-26 (61%; +10.1 Units)

All-Time: 253-211 (55%; +53.44 Units)

🎯 Addison Barger OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -120 ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.644 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Addison Barger is heating up at the plate, and the over on 0.5 total bases looks like a strong value play. He’s hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 5 straight, with a 3-game average of 2.67 total bases and a season average of 1.644. Barger also owns a .343 OBP vs right-handed pitching and gets a solid matchup against Carlos Rodón, who has allowed 4+ hits in 5 of his last 6 starts. With Barger making consistent contact and facing a hittable lefty, he’s in a great spot to keep his streak going.

Risk Factors

  • Rodon has a high K rate

🎯 Randy Arozarena OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.79 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Randy Arozarena is starting to find his groove, and the over on 1.5 H/R/RBIs offers strong value at plus money. He’s cleared this line in three straight games and 7 of his last 10, with a 5-game average of 2.4 and a 3-game average of 3.33—both well above the number. He holds a .359 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Michael Wacha, who has struggled recently, allowing 20 hits and 9 earned runs over his last three starts. With Randy seeing the ball well and drawing a vulnerable arm, he’s in a strong spot to stay hot.

Risk Factors

  • Boom-or-Bust Tendencies

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +450

  • Kyle Schwarber +225

  • Bryan Reynolds +450

  • Bobby Witt Jr. +400

  • Eugenio Suarez +550

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Randy Arozarena OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

    • Averaging 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game over last 3

    • He holds a .359 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Michael Wacha, who has struggled recently, allowing 20 hits and 9 earned runs over his last three starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Addison Barger OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-120 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 2 TB/G in L5

  • Barger owns a .343 OBP vs right-handed pitching and gets a solid matchup against Carlos Rodón, who has allowed 4+ hits in 5 of his last 6 starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team