Fresh Month, Fresh Opportunities

After a balanced August, today’s slate sets the tone for September

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 01, 2025

We rolled out the new Pick of the Day yesterday and kicked things off with a perfect 1-0 start. This week brings even more excitement as we gear up to launch NFL props ahead of Thursday Night Football, expanding the card beyond MLB. With a new month on the board, the focus is on starting September in the green and building early momentum. Confidence is high, the edges are sharp, and it’s time to lock in.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/31): 1-0 (100%; +0.83 Units)

MLB: 208-184 (53%; +18.27 Units)

August ‘25: 49-44 (53%; +0.33 Units)

Pick of the Day: 1-0 (100%; +0.83 Units)

All-Time: 333-285 (54%; +53.46 Units)

⭐️ WagerLens Pick of the Day

🎯 Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2.056 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Chourio has been on fire, averaging 5 TB over his last 3 games and 3.8 over his last 5, far above his 2.056 season average. He’s cleared this prop in 9 of his last 10 games, including a 6 TB performance yesterday, showcasing both consistency and ceiling. Against right-handed pitching, he owns a .454 SLG, and he already posted 3 total bases in his last matchup with Taijuan Walker. Walker has been hittable, allowing 6.38 hits per game across his last 8 starts, which lines up perfectly for Chourio to stay hot. With multiple paths to cash and elite recent form, this play earns a 97 confidence score.

Risk Factors

  • Chourio will either need an XBH or a multi-hit game

🎯 Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.80 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.613 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Dominic Canzone’s OVER 0.5 singles at +115 on DraftKings brings nice plus-money value with both form and matchup on his side. He’s logged singles in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, while averaging 0.8 over his last five games, better than his 0.613 season average. Canzone has been effective against right-handed pitching with a .342 OBP, and he’ll face Shane Baz, who has been hittable, allowing 5.8 hits per game over his last five starts. With his steady contact ability and Baz prone to giving up base runners, the 93 confidence score signals strong value for Canzone to notch at least one single.

Risk Factors

  • Risk of being walked with Baz walking 2 per game in 9 straight and as many as 4 BB in multiple games this season

🎯 Texas Rangers OVER 4.5 Team Total Runs

Best Price: +117 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 9 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 7.67 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 10 R/G

  • Season Average: 4.32 R/G

  • Confidence Score: XX

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

The Texas Rangers OVER 4.5 team total runs (+117 on Pinnacle) is a strong value play backed by both recent scoring trends and the matchup. The Rangers’ offense has been on fire, plating 9 runs in their last game, while averaging 7.67 runs over their last three and an even hotter 10 runs over their last five. That surge is well above their 4.32 season average, showing a clear uptick in production. They’ll face Ryne Nelson, who has struggled recently, allowing 31 hits and 15 earned runs over his last five starts. On top of that, Arizona’s pitching staff overall has given up 4.8 runs per game this season, which lines up well for Texas’ red-hot lineup. With the Rangers clearing this number in 5 of their last 5 games and 7 of their last 10, the trends and matchup both point toward another strong scoring output.

Risk Factors

  • Offense regression to season average

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We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Texas Rangers OVER 4.5 Team Total Runs (+117 Pinnacle)

    • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

    • Averaging 10 R/G over their last 5

    • They’ll face Ryne Nelson, who has struggled recently, allowing 31 hits and 15 earned runs over his last five starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 BetMGM)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 3.8 TB/G in L5

  • Against right-handed pitching, he owns a .454 SLG, and he already posted 3 total bases in his last matchup with Taijuan Walker

2. ⚡ Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Singles (+115 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 0.8 1B/G over last 5

  • Canzone has been effective against right-handed pitching with a .342 OBP, and he’ll face Shane Baz, who has been hittable, allowing 5.8 hits per game over his last five starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team