- The WagerLens Newsletter
- Posts
- Friday Slate Loaded With Value Plays
Friday Slate Loaded With Value Plays
Hitter props driving Friday’s value with a key under in the mix
Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 29, 2025
We’ve stayed relatively even lately, with a few tough hooks keeping us from bigger swings, but the important part is we’re still in the green for August. With the month winding down, today’s slate brings a chance to stack profit and finish strong. The card is built on high-confidence trends and sharp matchups, giving us plenty of reason to be confident as we head into the weekend push.
Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (08/28): 3-3 (50%; -0.37 Units)
MLB: 204-179 (53%; +19.5 Units)
August ‘25: 45-39 (54%; +1.52 Units)
All-Time: 329-280 (54%; +54.7 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -130 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.159 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 97
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Vinnie Pasquantino’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -130 on Caesars is backed by both recent form and matchup. He’s cleared this number in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs over his last five, well above his 2.159 season average. Pasquantino owns a .840 OPS vs RHP and faces Chris Paddack, who’s struggled with a 4.97 ERA and has allowed 26 hits and 15 runs over his last five starts. With his bat hot and Paddack giving up steady contact, the 97 confidence score reflects strong value on this over.
Risk Factors
Paddack’s last start was against KC so he may be more efficient having familiarity with the lineup
🎯 Bo Bichette OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -120 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.489 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 96
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
10 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Bo Bichette’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -120 on Caesars is backed by elite recent form. He’s cleared this number in 10 straight games, averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs over his last five, far above his 2.489 season average. Bichette has been scorching hot in August with a .996 OPS, 37 hits, and 19 RBIs, making him one of the most productive bats in baseball right now. He owns a .311 average vs RHP and gets Freddy Peralta, who despite not allowing a run in his last three starts, has shown volatility this season with outings of 7 hits and 5 ER allowed. With Bichette locked in and multiple paths to cash, the 96 confidence score makes this a strong over play.
Risk Factors
Peralta’s ability to completely shut down an offense of any strength
Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?
Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.
🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.
Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.
Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!
🎯 Francisco Lindor OVER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: +130 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 1B
Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 1B/G
Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 1B/G
Season Average: 0.705 1B/G
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Francisco Lindor’s OVER 0.5 singles at +130 on BetMGM offers strong value with recent production and matchup support. He’s been piling up base hits, recording singles in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last three, while averaging 2.33 singles over his last three games and 1.6 over his last five, more than double his 0.705 season average. Lindor owns a .350 OBP against right-handed pitching and will face Eury Pérez, who has allowed 17 hits over his last five starts. Even if Pérez keeps him in check, Miami’s bullpen has been shaky, giving up 15 hits across their last three games, creating added opportunity. With multiple paths to reach base and plus-money value, the 92 confidence score highlights this as a strong play.
Risk Factors
While Lindor has been stacking base hits recently, he can hit for power
🎯 Rangers @ Athletics UNDER 9.5 Total Runs
Best Price: +114 on BetRivers
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
3 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
The Rangers @ Athletics UNDER 9.5 total runs (+114 on BetRivers) is backed by both pitching profiles and head-to-head history. Jack Leiter and Jeffrey Springs have been steady enough, with ERAs of 3.81 and 4.15, respectively, and neither team projects as a heavy offensive threat here. The recent trend is also clear: these clubs are averaging just 7.8 total runs per game across their last 10 matchups, and they’ve only cleared this line twice in that span.
Risk Factors
Rangers coming into this game with offensive momentum after scoring 20 last game
🎯 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -125 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.019 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 86
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
6 out of last 7 over
Key Analysis
Alec Bohm’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -125 on DraftKings is backed by strong recent form. He’s cleared this line in 6 of his last 7 games, averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs over his last five compared to his 2.019 season average. Bohm owns a .285 average vs RHP and faces Bryce Elder, who’s struggled with a 6.12 ERA and allowed 28 hits and 19 ER over his last five starts, including 8 hits and 9 ER in just 2 innings against the Phillies. With Bohm locked in and Elder vulnerable, the 86 confidence score supports the over.
Risk Factors
Bohm’s performance has been volatile this season
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats
Eugenio Suárez
Riley Greene
Willy Adames
Kyle Tucker
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Francisco Lindor OVER 0.5 Singles (+130 BetMGM)
Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10
Averaing 2.33 1B/G over his last 3
Lindor owns a .350 OBP against right-handed pitching and will face Eury Pérez, who has allowed 17 hits over his last five starts
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 Caesars)
Hot streak: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
Pasquantino owns a .840 OPS vs RHP and faces Chris Paddack, who’s struggled with a 4.97 ERA and has allowed 26 hits and 15 runs over his last five starts
2. ⚡ Bo Bichette OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 Caesars)
10/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Bichette has been scorching hot in August with a .996 OPS, 37 hits, and 19 RBIs, making him one of the most productive bats in baseball right now
3. 💥 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 DraftKings)
5/L5 games going OVER
Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Bohm owns a .285 average vs RHP and faces Bryce Elder, who’s struggled with a 6.12 ERA and allowed 28 hits and 19 ER over his last five starts, including 8 hits and 9 ER in just 2 innings against the Phillies
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Rangers @ Athletics UNDER 9.5 Total Runs (+114 BetRIvers)
8/L10 games staying UNDER
These clubs are averaging just 7.8 total runs per game across their last 10 matchups, and they’ve only cleared this line twice in that span
Jack Leiter and Jeffrey Springs have been steady enough, with ERAs of 3.81 and 4.15, respectively
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team