From Basepaths to Box Scores: MLB Edges That Cash

Targeting key hitters and hot lineups for maximum value

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 13, 2025

We’re rolling into todays packed slate riding a hot streak and eyeing another strong performance. Today’s slip packs +3.8 units of profit potential, built on four high-confidence spots where the trends and matchups align. The bats are hot, the opportunities are clear, and the goal is simple — stay green and keep stacking wins.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 182-154 (54%; +23.46 Units)

August ‘25: 23-14 (62%; +5.52 Units)

All-Time: 307-255 (55%; +58.65 Units)

🎯 Blaze Alexander OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -125 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.273 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 95

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Blaze Alexander’s OVER 0.5 total bases prop is well-supported at -125 on Caesars, thanks to both his recent surge and the matchup. He’s hit this mark in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last five, and is averaging 3.33 total bases over his last three games and 3.6 over his last five, far above his 1.273 season average. Alexander is batting .306 against right-handed pitching and draws Merrill Kelly, who’s allowed an average of 4.7 hits per game over his last 10 starts, with six of those outings yielding 5+ hits. With a 95 confidence score, the recent production and pitching matchup point toward another strong night at the plate.

Risk Factors

  • Alexander is coming out of a slump

🎯 Tyler Soderstrom OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -110 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.033 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tyler Soderstrom’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -110 on Caesars is backed by both recent performance and a favorable matchup. He’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 3 H/R/RBIs over his last three contests and 2.8 over his last five. Soderstrom owns a strong .868 OPS against right-handed pitching and will face Drew Rassmussen, who has allowed at least 4 hits in three straight games. With a 92 confidence score and consistent production, Soderstrom is well-positioned to contribute multiple times on the stat sheet tonight.

Risk Factors

  • Rassmussen just 1.2 R/G over last 10 starts

🎯 Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: -105 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.8 R/G

  • Season Average: 0.607 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Christian Yelich’s OVER 0.5 runs scored at -105 on FanDuel has strong recent trends supporting it. He’s crossed the plate in 8 of his last 10 games, scoring 13 runs in that stretch, and is averaging 1 run per game over his last three contests. Yelich owns an .869 OPS against right-handed pitching and will face Mitch Keller, who has allowed 2+ runs in 7 of his last 10 starts. With his ability to get on base and the Brewers’ lineup behind him producing, the 91 confidence score points to a strong chance Yelich finds home again tonight.

Risk Factors

  • Will need others in the lineup to help cash

🎯 Milwaukee Brewers OVER 4.5 Total Runs

Best Price: +114 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 14 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 9.33 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 7.6 R/G

  • Season Average: 5.11 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

The Brewers’ OVER 4.5 total runs at +114 on Pinnacle comes with both momentum and matchup support. Milwaukee has topped this mark in 8 of their last 10 games, averaging 9.33 runs over their last three and 7.6 over their last five, well above their 5.11 season average. They face Mitch Keller, who has given up at least 2 runs in 7 of his last 10 starts, and a Pirates bullpen that has been in shambles, surrendering 18 earned runs over the last three games. With the lineup producing at a high clip and Pittsburgh’s pitching staff struggling, the 93 confidence score reflects a strong opportunity for Milwaukee to keep pouring on the offense.

Risk Factors

  • Keller owns a respectable 3.86 ERA

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats

  • Anthony Volpe

  • Christian Walker

  • Corey Seager

  • Manny Machado

  • Juan Soto

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Milwaukee Brewers OVER 4.5 Total Runs (+114 Pinnacle)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 7.6 R/G over their last 5

    • They face Mitch Keller, who has given up at least 2 runs in 7 of his last 10 starts, and a Pirates bullpen that has been in shambles, surrendering 18 earned runs over the last three games

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Blaze Alexander OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-125 Caesars)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 3.6 TB/G in L5

  • Alexander is batting .306 against right-handed pitching and draws Merrill Kelly, who’s allowed an average of 4.7 hits per game over his last 10 starts

2. ⚡ Tyler Soderstrom OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 Caesars)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • Soderstrom owns a strong .868 OPS against right-handed pitching and will face Drew Rassmussen, who has allowed at least 4 hits in three straight games

3. 💥 Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (-105 FanDuel)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.3 R/G over last 10 games

  • Yelich owns an .869 OPS against right-handed pitching and will face Mitch Keller, who has allowed 2+ runs in 7 of his last 10 starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team