From Heater to Heat Wave: Four Plays to Keep It Rolling

Targeting hot bats, cold streaks, and strong arms

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 11, 2025

We’ve been locked in, going 12-4 over the last five days and stacking +6.18 units in that stretch. Today’s card is built around four high hit-rate props, each backed by strong trends and favorable matchups. The momentum’s rolling, the edges are clear, and it’s time to keep pressing the advantage. Let’s cash these tickets and keep the bankroll growing.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/10): 3-2 (60%; +0.68 Units)

MLB: 179-153 (54%; +21.77 Units)

August ‘25: 20-13 (61%; +3.8 Units)

All-Time: 304-254 (54%; +56.96 Units)

🎯 Ryne Nelson UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 ER

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 ER/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 ER/G

  • Season Average: 1.5 ER/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ryne Nelson’s UNDER 2.5 earned runs is well-priced at -120 on DraftKings given his recent form and the matchup. He’s held opponents under this number in 9 of his last 10 starts, including each of his last three, while posting a 3.32 ERA on the season. Nelson has allowed just 1 ER per game over his last three outings and 1.6 per game over his last five; both better than his 1.5 season average. The Rangers’ offense has been quiet lately, scoring only 1.67 runs per game over their last three and averaging 4.05 on the year. With a 92 confidence score, Nelson is in a strong spot to keep runs off the board.

Risk Factors

  • As many as 7 ER in a single outing this season

🎯 Carlos Correa OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -105 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.843 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 7 over

Key Analysis

Carlos Correa’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -105 on Caesars comes with strong recent momentum and a favorable matchup. He’s cleared this number in seven straight games, averaging 3.67 H/R/RBIs over his last three and 3.6 over his last five; both well above his 1.843 season average. Correa has been especially dangerous against left-handed pitching, hitting .291 with an .888 OPS, and he’ll face Garrett Crochet, who has allowed 8+ hits in four of his last six starts and 12 earned runs over that span. With a 93 confidence score, Correa is well-positioned to keep filling the box score tonight.

Risk Factors

  • Crochet 2.24 ERA

🎯 Nathaniel Lowe UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 H/R/RBI

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.776 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Nathaniel Lowe’s UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -115 on DraftKings is backed by a near-perfect recent track record. He’s stayed under this number in 10 straight games, averaging just 0.33 H/R/RBIs over his last three and 0.2 over his last five; a steep drop from his 1.776 season average. Lowe has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, hitting just .170, which further tilts the matchup against him. With a 92 confidence score, all signs point to his cold streak continuing tonight.

Risk Factors

  • Bailey Falter has been hittable

🎯 Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.80 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.575 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Andrew Vaughn’s OVER 0.5 singles at -115 on DraftKings comes with a 97 confidence score and strong supporting trends. He’s recorded a single in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 0.8 per game over his last five; well above his 0.575 season average. Vaughn has been effective against left-handed pitching, batting .278 with a .346 OBP, and he faces Andrew Heaney, who has surrendered 23 hits over his last five starts. With his recent consistency and favorable matchup, Vaughn is well-positioned to notch at least one single tonight.

Risk Factors

  • XBH will not cash

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Kody Clemens

  • Josh Bell

  • Lenyn Sosa

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Carlos Correa OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 Caesars)

    • Most consistent trend: 7/7 in L7

    • Averaging 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

    • Correa has been especially dangerous against left-handed pitching, hitting .291 with an .888 OPS, and he’ll face Garrett Crochet, who has allowed 8+ hits in four of his last six starts and 12 earned runs over that span

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Singles (-115 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 0.8 singles per game in L5

  • Vaughn has been effective against left-handed pitching, batting .278 with a .346 OBP, and he faces Andrew Heaney, who has surrendered 23 hits over his last five starts

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Ryne Nelson UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-120 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Allowing just 1.6 ER/G over last 5 starts

  • The Rangers’ offense has been quiet lately, scoring only 1.67 runs per game over their last three and averaging 4.05 on the year

2. ⬇️ Nathaniel Lowe UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115 DraftKings)

  • 10/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 0.2 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5

  • Lowe has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, hitting just .170, which further tilts the matchup against him

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team