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From the Court to the Plate: Smashing Lines & Cashing Tickets
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Sage Davis
April 26, 2025
Tough one yesterday, going 1-3 with all three losses falling just a hook short. We’ve got a strong slate lined up today, and we're ready to flip the momentum. Let’s lock in, stay sharp, and stack some green!
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (04/25): 1-3 (25%)
MLB: 36-33 (52%)
NBA: 114-84 (57%)
April ‘25: 50-40 (55%)
All-Time: 160-132 (55%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Mark Vientos OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -135 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 1.52 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Mark Vientos’ prop for Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs looks like a strong play today. Vientos has been red-hot recently, averaging 3.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 2.8 over his last 5 — both well above today’s line. Even though his season average sits closer at 1.52, his current form makes that less relevant. He’s hit the over in 8 of his last 10 games, including 3 straight. Add in that opposing pitcher Brad Lord has given up 7 runs on 16 hits over just 13.1 innings, and Vientos is set up well to stay hot.
Risk Factors
First time facing Lord
Prop could depend on others in lineup coming through
🎯 Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 7 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 1.84 4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 90
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Trevor Larnach’s Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop looks like a great value at -130 on DraftKings. Larnach has been extremely productive lately, averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 3.8 over his last 5 — both numbers far above the simple 0.5 threshold he needs to clear. His season average of 1.84 is also comfortably over the line. He’s gone over in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5. Facing Yusei Kikuchi, who’s allowed 11 runs on 23 hits and 14 walks across 29.1 innings, Larnach is in a great spot to keep his hot streak going.
Risk Factors
Has not hit well against LHP thus far this season (small sample size)
🎯 CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -115 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 2.15 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 85
How Has This Prop Performed?
1 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
CJ Abrams’ Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop at -115 on DraftKings offers solid value based on both recent form and season-long consistency. Abrams is averaging 2.67 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games, slightly above today’s line. His season average of 2.15 H/R/RBIs also supports the over, showing this isn't just a recent hot streak. He’s cleared this mark in 7 of his last 10 games, even though he’s only gone over in 1 of his last 3. Abrams also has positive matchup indicators: he’s 1-for-1 in his career against Clay Holmes, who’s struggled a bit this year, allowing 9 runs on 22 hits and 13 walks over 25.2 innings. Plus, Abrams is batting .280 against right-handed pitching this season across 25 ABs, suggesting he’s well-positioned to deliver again.
Risk Factors
Recent volatility in Abrams production
🎯 Tyler Soderstrom OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 2.81 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 84
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Tyler Soderstrom’s Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop looks very appealing at -130 on DraftKings. Soderstrom has been on fire lately, averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 2.4 over his last 5 — both comfortably clearing today’s line. His season average of 2.81 H/R/RBIs suggests that even a normal outing would put him in a strong position to hit the over. He’s cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10 games, including 3 straight. The matchup is favorable too, with Jonathan Cannon allowing 13 runs on 23 hits and 15 walks across 24.1 innings this season. Even better, Soderstrom is batting .324 against righties with 8 home runs and 18 RBIs, making him a real threat against Cannon’s right-handed pitching.
Risk Factors
0-2 career against Cannon
Cannon has a high K rate despite his early struggles
🎯 Michael Porter Jr. OVER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Best Price: -125 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 14 PRA
Last 3-Game Average: 17.33 PRA/G
Last 5-Game Average: 19.4 PRA/G
Season Average: 26.9 PRA/G
Confidence Score: 89
How Has This Prop Performed?
1 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Michael Porter Jr.’s Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists prop at -125 on BetMGM looks like a strong bounce-back candidate. While he’s averaged 17.33 PRA over his last 3 games (just below the line), his 5-game average of 19.4 PRA and season average of 26.9 PRA show he typically clears this number with room to spare. He’s hit this over in 8 of his last 10 games, and importantly, he’s thrived against the Clippers — averaging 25.6 PRA across 4 regular-season matchups this year. Even though he’s only cleared this line once in his last 3 games, the longer-term trends and the matchup both strongly favor the over.
Risk Factors
Starting day on injury report
Failed to clear this line in 2 of 3 playoff games
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Jose Ramirez: Game 1 +600
Spencer Torkelson: Game 1: +550
Shohei Ohtani: +205
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115 DraftKings)
Most consistent trend: 7/10 in L10
Averaging 2.15 H/R/RBIs per Game over season
1-for-1 in his career against Clay Holmes, who’s struggled a bit this year, allowing 9 runs on 22 hits and 13 walks over 25.2 innings
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Mark Vientos OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 DraftKings)
Hot streak: 8/10 in L10
Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
Brad Lord has given up 7 runs on 16 hits over just 13.1 innings
2. ⚡ Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
8/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
Facing Yusei Kikuchi, who’s allowed 11 runs on 23 hits and 14 walks across 29.1 innings
3. 💥 Tyler Soderstrom OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 DraftKings)
3/L3 games going OVER
Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game this season
Jonathan Cannon allowing 13 runs on 23 hits and 15 walks across 24.1 innings this season and Soderstrom is batting .324 against righties with 8 home runs and 18 RBIs
4. 🚀 Michael Porter Jr. OVER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125 BetMGM)
8/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 19.4 PRA/G over the last 5 games
Thrived against the Clippers — averaging 25.6 PRA across 4 regular-season matchups this year
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team