Full Count Forecast: Daily MLB Betting Breakdown

Informed Picks. Clean Process. Daily Profit Potential.

Author

Sage Davis
May 05, 2025

The Force was not with us on Star Wars Day. We took a tough 1-4 hit, with the Phillies falling in extras and Urias getting pinch-hit for late. MLB has been volatile, to say the least—but we’re staying sharp and ready to shift the momentum back in our favor.

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Step up your game at WagerLens.com — where sharp bettors get their edge.

🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.

Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.

Don’t miss a play — follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/04): 1-4 (20%; -3.24 units)

MLB: 43-49 (47%; +6.52 units)

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 units)

May ‘25: 4-7 (37%; -2.98 units)

All-Time: 168-149 (53%; +42.7 units)

🎯 Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Singels

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 1B/G

  • Season Average: .818 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Ke’Bryan Hayes is in a strong position to record at least one single today, making the Over 0.5 Singles at -135 on DraftKings a solid value play. Hayes has hit this prop in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of the last 3, and is averaging 1.67 singles per game over his last three. His success isn’t just recent—he’s also hitting a robust .381 (8-for-21) against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, a pitcher who’s allowed 30 hits in his last 29 innings.

Risk Factors

  • XBH will not cash

🎯 Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.2 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.9 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Teoscar Hernández has been consistently productive at the plate, making the Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 on ESPN Bet) an appealing play. He’s cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games and is averaging a strong 4.2 H/R/RBIs per game over his last five, well above the required mark. On the season, he’s averaging 2.9 per game, and even against a tough arm like Sandy Alcantara, he’s held his own—going 3-for-9 with 3 RBIs in his career. Alcantara has struggled lately, allowing 24 runs on 26 hits in his last 26 innings, which sets the stage nicely for Teoscar to stay hot.

Risk Factors

  • RBIs and Runs scored could depend on others in the lineup

🎯 Carmen Mlodzinski OVER 3.5 Strikouts Thrown

Best Price: +105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 ks

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 K/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 K/G

  • Season Average: 3.67 K/G

  • Confidence Score: 78

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Carmen Mlodzinski’s Over 3.5 Strikeouts at +105 on BetMGM offers plus-money value in a spot where the numbers support the upside. He’s hit this number in 4 of his last 5 games, including a 4-strikeout outing last time out. His season average sits at 3.67 K/G, and he’s trending slightly above that with 3.6 Ks per game over his last five. The matchup also helps—St. Louis is averaging 7.66 strikeouts per game this season and just fanned 9 times in their most recent outing.

Risk Factors

  • Cardinals have been striking out less than earlier in the season

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Aaron Judge +200

  • Mookie Betts +700

  • Sean Murphy +600

  • Pete Alonso +280

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Carmen Mlodzinski OVER 3.5 Strikouts Thrown (+105 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Cleared this line in 5/L6, 0 K outing lowering averages

    • St. Louis is averaging 7.66 strikeouts per game this season and just fanned 9 times in their most recent outing

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 0.5 Singles (-135 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.4 1B/G in L5

  • Hitting a robust .381 (8-for-21) against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, a pitcher who’s allowed 30 hits in his last 29 innings

2. ⚡ Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 ESPN Bet)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.9 H/R/RBIs per game over the season

  • 3-for-9 with 3 RBIs in his career against Alcantara who has struggled lately, allowing 24 runs on 26 hits in his last 26 innings

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team