Full MLB Slate and NBA Finals Game 3

Hot streaks & strong matchups: 4 overs worth backing.

Author

Sage Davis
June 11, 2025

After a brief dip, we're focused on shifting momentum back in our favor and stacking profits. The board today gives us just what we like — sharp matchups, trending overs, and data-backed plays. We've locked in four high-confidence props featuring players who are heating up at the right time and facing favorable opponents. Let’s ride the wave and get back in the green with a smart, targeted slip.

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.

🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.

Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.

Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 97-94 (51%; +7.49 Units)

NBA: 115-86 (57%; +41.38 Units)

June ‘25: 10-11 (48%; -1.66 Units)

All-Time: 222-195 (53%; +42.7 Units)

🎯 Willson Contreras OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.127 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 94

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Willson Contreras is in peak form heading into tonight’s matchup, making his OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop an enticing play at -135 on DraftKings. He's cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including a massive 5 H/R/RBI outing in his most recent performance. Over his last 3 games, he's averaging 4 H/R/RBIs, and he holds a strong season average of 2.127. Contreras also has a solid track record against Eric Lauer, batting .333 with a homer and 2 RBIs in 12 career at-bats. His .762 OPS vs left-handed pitching and scorching .942 OPS in June further back the play. With Lauer not fully stretched out—yielding 18 baserunners in just 22 innings recently—Toronto may lean on their bullpen, which could work in Contreras’s favor. Backed by strong trends, favorable splits, and matchup context, this prop earns a high confidence score of 94.

Risk Factors

  • Toronto’s top 10 bullpen

🎯 J.P. Crawford OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 1B/G

  • Season Average: .781 1B.G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

J.P. Crawford’s OVER 0.5 Singles prop at -130 on ESPN Bet looks like a strong value play given his consistent contact and favorable matchup. He’s hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games with at least one single, maintaining a steady pace of 1 single per game over his last 3 and 5 outings. His season average of .781 singles per game aligns well with this trend. Crawford has seen Eduardo Rodriguez well in their past meetings, batting .333 over 15 at-bats, and his .380 OBP vs lefties this season further supports the play. With Rodriguez allowing 50 hits over his last 33 innings—an average of 1.5 hits per inning—Crawford should get his chances. The matchup, trends, and splits combine to support the high confidence score of 91 on this prop.

Risk Factors

  • XBH wont cash

🎯 George Springer OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.857 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score:

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

George Springer’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -125 on DraftKings is well-supported by both recent form and matchup data. He’s been on a tear, clearing this line in 5 straight games and 8 of his last 10. His recent averages—2.67 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 3 per game over his last 5—are well above the required number. On the season, he's averaging 1.857 H/R/RBIs per game, and his splits shine even brighter with a .941 OPS vs left-handed pitching. Facing southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who has surrendered 18 runs and 39 hits over his last 37.1 innings, Springer is positioned to continue his hot streak. This prop grades out with strong momentum and matchup edge, warranting a high confidence score in the low-to-mid 90s.

Risk Factors

  • Springer 0-1 career vs Liberatore

🎯 Alex Caruso OVER 8.5 Points

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 20 Points

  • Last 3-Game Average: 13 PPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 10.4 PPG

  • Season Average: 7.7 PPG

  • Confidence Score: 94

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Alex Caruso’s OVER 8.5 Points at -120 on DraftKings is a strong value given his recent offensive surge and playoff consistency. He’s averaging 13 points over his last 3 games and 10.4 over his last 5, both well above the line. He’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games and in both NBA Finals appearances so far, showing increased scoring aggressiveness when it matters most. Although his season average sits at 7.7 PPG, his postseason average of 9.6 PPG reflects the elevated role he’s taken on in high-leverage moments. With momentum, usage, and trends all pointing up, this prop earns a high confidence score of 94.

Risk Factors

  • Averaged 7.1 PPG on the Road in the regular season

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Rafael Devers +215

  • Nolan Arenado +600

  • Zach Neto +295

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Alex Caruso OVER 8.5 Points (-120 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 13 PPG over last 3, including a 20 point performance

    • Postseason average of 9.6 PPG

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Willson Contreras OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • Contreras has a solid track record against Eric Lauer, batting .333 with a homer and 2 RBIs in 12 career at-bats and his .762 OPS vs left-handed pitching and scorching .942 OPS in June further back the play

2. ⚡ J.P. Crawford OVER 0.5 Singles (-130 ESPN Bet)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1 single per game over last 5 games

  • Crawford has seen Eduardo Rodriguez well in their past meetings, batting .333 over 15 at-bats, and his .380 OBP vs lefties this season further supports the play

3. 💥 George Springer OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 DraftKings)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • Springer has a .941 OPS vs left-handed pitching and is facing southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who has surrendered 18 runs and 39 hits over his last 37.1 innings

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team