We went 2-1 on daily picks yesterday, banking +0.86 units and staying in the green. Unfortunately, our ladder challenge was cut short on Day 2 after Josh Naylor exited early with neck stiffness. Tough break, but we’ll run it back soon. In the meantime, we’re locked in on today’s full MLB slate with a fresh batch of high-confidence plays—let’s keep stacking wins.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/28): 2-1 (67%; +0.86 Units)

MLB: 120-106 (53%; +14.78 Units)

June ‘25: 33-23 (59%; +5.63 Units)

All-Time: 245-208 (54%; +48.97 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -148 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.165 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Brice Turang has been on a tear, and the over on 1.5 H/R/RBIs is well-supported by both recent form and matchup. He’s cleared this line in 5 straight games and 8 of his last 10, averaging a scorching 4 H/R/RBIs over both his last 3 and 5-game spans. His season average of 2.165 also sits comfortably above the line. Turang owns a .361 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Antonio Senzatela, who’s struggled with a 6.48 ERA and has given up 16 hits and 9 runs in his last 3 outings. With Turang in peak form and drawing a soft matchup, he’s in a strong position to keep producing.

Risk Factors

• Cashing may depend on others in the lineup to perform

🎯 Gary Sanchez OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 H/G

• Season Average: .727 H/G

• Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Gary Sanchez has been finding his swing, and he enters this game having hit safely in 3 of his last 5 contests, including a 4-hit explosion in his most recent outing. His hit rate sits at a solid 0.727 hits per game this season, and he’s cleared this modest 0.5 line in 8 of his last 10 games. Sanchez is also batting .250 and draws a promising matchup vs. Zack Littell, who’s allowing a .312 average and .421 OBP to right-handed hitters. With Sanchez heating up and facing a hittable RHP, this looks like another strong spot to back him.

Risk Factors

• Sanchez can be streaky, and batting order position may impact plate appearances

🎯 Antonio Senzatela UNDER 15.5 Outs

Best Price: -111 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 16 Outs

• Last 3-Game Average: 14.3 Outs/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 13.4 Outs/G

• Season Average: 14.312 Outs/G

• Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Antonio Senzatela continues to struggle with efficiency, failing to clear 15.5 outs in 8 of his last 10 starts. His season average sits at 14.3 outs, and he’s averaging just 13.4 over his last 5 games. The matchup doesn’t help either — he faces a hot Milwaukee lineup that has hit him hard in the past and ranks among the better offenses at working counts and pushing starters out early. Senzatela’s 6.69 ERA reflects his inability to pitch deep into games, and he’s hit this under in 4 of his last 5 appearances.

Risk Factors

• Senzatela gets to the 6th inning with a favorable matchup

🎯 Seth Lugo OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: +105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 SO

• Last 3-Game Average: 6 SO/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 SO/G

• Season Average: 4.857 SO/G

• Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Seth Lugo has quietly been delivering solid strikeout numbers, going over this 4.5 line in 3 of his last 5 starts. He’s coming off a 7-K performance and is averaging over 5 strikeouts across his last 5 outings. His season average of 4.857 SO/G sits right at the mark, but recent form leans in favor of the over. He’ll face a Dodgers lineup that just struck out 9 times in their last game, suggesting potential for swing-and-miss upside even against a tough opponent. With plus money on the board and Lugo flashing upside (including 9 Ks two starts ago), this is a value spot.

Risk Factors

• The Dodgers are typically disciplined at the plate, and Lugo has hovered right around this line in many starts

🎯 Andrew Abbot UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 ER

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 ER/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 ER/G

• Season Average: 1.154 ER/G

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Andrew Abbott has been remarkably steady at limiting runs, holding opponents under this 2.5 earned run line in 9 of his last 10 starts. He owns an impressive 1.81 ERA and gives up just 1.15 earned runs per game on average. Even when he faced trouble on June 4th and gave up 5 earned runs, he's bounced back strongly with 3 straight unders. With solid control and a favorable matchup at home, Abbott is a reliable bet to keep runs off the board again.

Risk Factors

• Padres have the ability to get on the board early

🎯 Kyle Stowers OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 1.947 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Kyle Stowers has been quietly crushing this line, going over 1.5 H/R/RBIs in 6 of his last 7 games—including five straight. He’s posted back-to-back 5-HRRBI games and is averaging 4.3 over his last 3, well above the needed number. On the season, he’s hitting .277 with a 1.947 HRRBI/G average, and he faces Brandon Pfaadt, who enters with a 5.49 ERA and has allowed 13 home runs and a .522 SLG to righties. This matchup lines up well for Stowers to stay hot against a hittable pitcher.

Risk Factors

• Cashing may depend on others in the lineup to perform

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Seth Lugo OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 7/10 in L10

   • Averaging 5.2 SO/G over last 5 starts

   • Facing a Dodgers lineup that just struck out 9 times in their last game

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-148 Caesars)

• Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

• Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

• Turang owns a .361 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Antonio Senzatela, who’s struggled with a 6.48 ERA and has given up 16 hits and 9 runs in his last 3 outings

2. ⚡ Gary Sanchez OVER 0.5 Hits (-125 DraftKings)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 1.2 H/G over last 5

• Sanchez is batting .250 and draws a promising matchup vs. Zack Littell, who’s allowing a .312 average and .421 OBP to right-handed hitters

3. 💥 Kyle Stowers OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 DraftKings)

• 5/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 3.6 H/R/RBIs over last 5

• On the season, he’s hitting .277 with a 1.947 HRRBI/G average, and he faces Brandon Pfaadt, who enters with a 5.49 ERA and has allowed 13 home runs and a .522 SLG to righties

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Antonio Senzatela UNDER 15.5 Outs (-111 Pinnacle)

• 8/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 13.4 Outs/G over last 5 starts

• Facing a hot Milwaukee lineup that has hit him hard in the past and ranks among the better offenses at working counts and pushing starters out early

2. ⬇️ Andrew Abbot UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-105 DraftKings)

• 9/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 1.4 ER/G over last 5 which includes one 5 ER game

• He owns an impressive 1.81 ERA and gives up just 1.15 earned runs per game on average

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team