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Hammering the Hot Hands and Fading No One
Five plays built on consistency, power, and value across the board
Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
July 12, 2025
We kept the streak alive yesterday with a solid 2-1 card, stacking up +1.06 units of profit and staying locked in on what’s working. Today’s board is looking juicy—with a few familiar faces back in play and trending hard in our favor. When the numbers are this strong, we don’t overthink it—we press the edge. Between hot bats, strikeout machines, and a team trending toward another dub, the setup is there for a full sweep. Let’s ride the momentum, trust the trends, and cash some slips. It’s go time.
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (07/11): 2-1 (67%; +1.06 Units)
MLB: 146-123 (54%; +23.25 Units)
July ‘25: 17-12 (59%; +4.9 Units)
All-Time: 271-224 (55%; +58.5 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -120 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 12 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 6.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.349 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 97
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
10 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Cody Bellinger is absolutely dialed in, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -120 is backed by elite production. He’s cleared this number in 10 straight games, with an eye-popping 5.2 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5 and a 3-game average of 6.33. He’s batting an incredible .386 vs left-handed pitching, and he faces Matthew Boyd, who’s been inconsistent—allowing an average of 4.88 hits per game, with individual outings ranging from 1 to 10 hits allowed. With Bellinger in peak form and hammering southpaws, he’s in a prime spot to keep crushing this number.
Risk Factors
May need others in the lineup to cash
🎯 Ceddanne Rafaela OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Best Price: +140 on FanDuel
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 TB
Last 3-Game Average: 3 TB/G
Last 5-Game Average: 4 TB/G
Season Average: 1.644 TB/G
Confidence Score: 96
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Ceddanne Rafaela is on a tear, and the over on 1.5 total bases at +140 is loaded with value. He’s hit this mark in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with a 5-game average of 4.0 total bases and a 3-game average of 3.0. He’s slugging .459 vs right-handed pitching and draws Shane Baz, who’s allowed 7 hits in each of his last two starts. With Rafaela producing extra-base power and facing a hittable righty, he’s in a strong position to keep the streak alive and crush this number at plus money.
Risk Factors
Will need an XBH or multi-hit game
🎯 Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Best Price: +121 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: 12 SO
Last 3-Game Average: 10 SO/G
Last 5-Game Average: 9.4 SO/G
Season Average: 8.222 SO/G
Confidence Score: 94
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Zack Wheeler has been dominant on the mound, and the over on 6.5 strikeouts at +121 offers great value despite a tough matchup. He’s cleared this line in five straight starts and 8 of his last 10, with a 5-game average of 9.4 strikeouts and a 3-game average of 10 Ks per game. His season average sits at 8.222, showing he’s consistently outpacing today’s number. While the Padres strike out at the third-lowest rate in MLB, Wheeler’s recent form has been elite—racking up 12 strikeouts in his last outing. Even against a disciplined lineup, his swing-and-miss stuff gives this prop a strong shot to cash at plus money.
Risk Factors
Patient Padres lineup
🎯 Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -110 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 4.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.095 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 94
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Corey Seager is rolling, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -110 is backed by strong trends and a favorable matchup. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, with a 5-game average of 4.6 H/R/RBIs and a 3-game average of 4.0—nearly doubling his season average of 2.095. Seager has a .309 OBP vs lefties and a solid track record vs Framber Valdez, batting .269 in 26 ABs with 4 RBIs. Valdez has allowed 4+ hits in 9 of his last 10 starts, making Seager well-positioned to stay hot and fill the stat sheet once again.
Risk Factors
Valdez respectable 2.9 ERA
🎯 Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
Best Price: -135 on Pinancle
Recent Performance
Last Game: Won
Last 3-Game Average: 2-1
Last 5-Game Average: 4-1
Season Average: 55-39
Confidence Score: 86
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 won
4 out of last 5 won
9 out of last 10 won
Key Analysis
The Blue Jays have been playing winning baseball and look like a strong moneyline play at -135. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games, including 4 of their last 5, and are trending up as they face a beatable A’s team. Toronto sends Kevin Gausman (4.13 ERA, 6-6) to the mound, while Oakland counters with Jacob Lopez (4.26 ERA, 2-5), who’s been inconsistent. The A’s are also allowing 5.68 runs per game, compared to just 4.39 allowed by the Jays, giving Toronto a clear edge in both pitching and run prevention. With form, matchup, and momentum on their side, the Jays are in a solid spot to keep the streak alive.
Risk Factors
Athletics power hitters
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Aaron Judge +190
Elly De La Cruz +255
Brandon Nimmo +425
Mike Trout +230
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Ceddanne Rafaela OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+140 FanDuel)
Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 4 TB/G over last 5
He’s slugging .459 vs right-handed pitching and draws Shane Baz, who’s allowed 7 hits in each of his last two starts
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 DraftKings)
Hot streak: 10/10 in L10
Averaging 5.2 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
He’s batting an incredible .386 vs left-handed pitching, and he faces Matthew Boyd, who’s been inconsistent—allowing an average of 4.88 hits per game, with individual outings ranging from 1 to 10 hits allowed
2. ⚡ Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+121 Pinnacle)
5/L5 games going OVER
Averaging 9.4 SO/G over last 5
While the Padres strike out at the third-lowest rate in MLB, Wheeler’s recent form has been elite—racking up 12 strikeouts in his last outing
3. 💥 Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 DraftKings)
9/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 4.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Seager has a .309 OBP vs lefties and a solid track record vs Framber Valdez, batting .269 in 26 ABs with 4 RBIs. Plus, Valdez has allowed 4+ hits in 9 of his last 10 starts
Watch List
1. ⚠️ Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-135 Pinnacle)
Strong trend but Athletics kept it close last night scoring 6 runs on 10 hits
Toronto sends Kevin Gausman (4.13 ERA, 6-6) to the mound, while Oakland counters with Jacob Lopez (4.26 ERA, 2-5), who’s been inconsistent
The A’s are allowing 5.68 runs per game, compared to just 4.39 allowed by the Jays
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team