Heating Up: High-Confidence Props After a 5-1 Day

Confident reads on hitters in rhythm and pitchers in control

What a day we had on the diamond, going 5-1 and banking a solid 4.29 units of profit! The reads were sharp, the props hit early, and the momentum is clearly swinging in our favor. We’ve got another packed MLB slate today, and the value is jumping off the board. A few plus-money plays stand out with strong trends and high confidence — perfect spots to keep building on yesterday’s success. Let’s stay locked in and keep stacking wins.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/28): 5-1 (83%; +4.28 Units)

MLB: 125-107 (54%; +18.27 Units)

June ‘25: 38-24 (61%; +9.12 Units)

All-Time: 250-209; 54%; +52.46 Units)

🎯 Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +125 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.438

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Brice Turang is swinging a hot bat, and the over on 1.5 total bases offers strong value at plus money. He’s hit this mark in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5 and each of the last 3, with a 3-game average of 3 total bases and a 5-game average of 2.4. His season average of 1.438 is climbing quickly thanks to his current form. Turang has a .390 slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching and faces Germán Márquez, who has allowed 6+ hits in 7 of his last 8 starts. With Turang’s extra-base potential and a hittable pitcher on the mound, he’s in a great spot to cash again.

Risk Factors

  • XBH or multi-hit game needed to cash

🎯 Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.763 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Ke’Bryan Hayes is seeing the ball well, and the over on 0.5 singles is a sharp play at -110. He’s recorded at least one single in five straight games, with a 3-game average of 1.33 and a 5-game average of 1.4—both well above his season mark of 0.763. Hayes also holds a .311 OBP vs right-handed pitching, giving him plenty of opportunities to get on base. With recent consistency and solid contact rates, he’s in a strong position to extend his singles streak today.

Risk Factors

  • XBH will not cash

🎯 Jonathan Cannon OVER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: +124 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 SO

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 SO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 SO/G

  • Season Average: 4.25 SO/G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jonathan Cannon has quietly been a reliable strikeout arm, and the over on 3.5 Ks offers great value at plus money. He’s hit this number in 8 of his last 10 starts, including a 5-strikeout effort his last time out. His 3-game and 5-game averages of 4 and 3.8 strikeouts, respectively, are right in line with this line, and his season average of 4.25 further supports the over. He gets a favorable matchup against a Giants team that has allowed opposing starters to clear this line in 7 of their last 10 games. With form, matchup, and value on his side, Cannon is in a great spot to deliver again.

Risk Factors

  • Cannon may not go deep if he struggles early

🎯 Ranger Suarez UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 ER

  • Last 3-Game Average: .67 ER/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 ER/G

  • Season Average: 1.5 ER/G

  • Confidence Score: 84

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ranger Suárez has been dominant all season, and the under on 2.5 earned runs is well-supported. He’s hit this in 8 of his last 10 starts, including five straight, with a 3-game average of just 0.67 earned runs. His season mark of 1.5 ER/G is comfortably below the line. He faces a Braves lineup that has been slow out of the gate lately, averaging just 0.67 runs per game in the first five innings over their last three. With elite run prevention and a cold offense on the other side, Suárez is in a strong spot to stay under again.

Risk Factors

  • Braves have the potential to get their offense going early

🎯 Yandy Diaz OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +111 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.922 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Yandy Díaz is swinging it well, and the over on 1.5 total bases at plus money looks like strong value. He’s hit this number in 8 of his last 10 games, with a 5-game average of 2.4 total bases and a season average of 1.922. He’s batting .309 with a .487 slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching and faces Dean Kremer, who’s allowed 4+ hits in eight straight starts, including four home runs. With Yandy’s consistent contact and power potential, he’s in a great spot to cash this over again.

Risk Factors

  • XBH or multi-hit game to cash

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+125 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 2.4 TB/G over last 5

    • Turang has a .390 slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching and faces Germán Márquez, who has allowed 6+ hits in 7 of his last 8 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 0.5 Singles (-110 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 7/7 in L7

  • Averaging 1.4 singles per game in L5

  • Hayes holds a .311 OBP vs right-handed pitching, giving him plenty of opportunities to get on base

2. ⚡ Jonathan Cannon OVER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124 FanDuel)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 4 SO/G in last 3 starts

  • Favorable matchup against a Giants team that has allowed opposing starters to clear this line in 7 of their last 10 games

3. 💥 Yandy Diaz OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+111 Pinnacle)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.4 TB/G over last 5

  • Batting .309 with a .487 slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching and faces Dean Kremer, who’s allowed 4+ hits in eight straight starts, including four home runs

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Ranger Suarez UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-120 DraftKings)

  • 5/L5 games staying UNDER

  • Allowing just 1 ER/G over last 5 starts

  • Facing a Braves lineup that has been slow out of the gate lately, averaging just 0.67 runs per game in the first five innings over their last three

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team