High Confidence Plus Money Plays: 4/17 MLB Props

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 17, 2025

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Table of Contents

We kept things rolling yesterday with a strong 3-1 performance, missing the sweep by 1 base from Corbin Carroll. With no NBA on the slate today, our full attention shifts to MLB. It’s a loaded schedule with a nice mix of day and night games—plenty of opportunities to take advantage.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/16): 3-1 (75%)

MLB: 19-16 (54%)

April ‘25: 30-23 (57%)

All-Time: 140-115 (55%)

🎯 Eugenio Suarez UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -150 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.8 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Batting Average: .159 average

  • Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Eugenio Suárez’s UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs looks like a strong value play today, especially at -150 on DraftKings. He’s stayed under this line in 4 of his last 5 games and 9 of his last 10, showing a consistent lack of production at the plate. His season batting average sits at just .159, and his recent form isn’t encouraging either—averaging only 0.8 H/R/RBIs over his last 5 games. Facing Edward Cabrera, who gave up just 2 runs on 4 hits in his season debut, doesn’t help Suárez’s outlook. He’s also just 1-for-4 lifetime against Cabrera, offering little historical upside. With both recent trends and matchup data pointing toward a low-impact outing, the under looks like the smart side.

Risk Factors

  • Strong bat of Alek Thomas behind Suarez

  • Home Run ability

🎯 Kameron Misner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.2 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Batting Average: .395 average

  • Confidence Score: 84

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Kameron Misner’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +135 on DraftKings offers strong value given his recent form and matchup. Misner is swinging a hot bat, hitting .395 on the season and averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games. He’s gone over this line in 3 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10, showing consistent involvement in the offense. He now faces Will Warren, who’s struggled through 14 innings, allowing 8 runs on 9 hits—including 2 home runs. With Misner’s current momentum and a favorable pitching matchup, this plus-money prop has clear upside worth targeting.

Risk Factors

  • 1+ Ks per inning for Warren

🎯 Tyler Soderstrom OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: +110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 run

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 R/G

  • Season Batting Average: .324 average

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tyler Soderstrom’s OVER 0.5 Runs Scored at +110 on DraftKings looks like a strong plus-money opportunity backed by both form and matchup. Soderstrom has crossed the plate in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, and he's averaging 1.33 runs per game over his last 3. He’s hitting .324 on the season and has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, with 8 home runs and 15 RBIs coming against RHP—where he gets 81% of his at-bats. He’ll face Davis Martin, who’s given up 8 runs on 19 hits across 17 innings, including a pair of homers. With Soderstrom hitting well, often batting in a run-producing part of the lineup, and facing a hittable righty, he has multiple paths to cashing this run prop.

Risk Factors

  • Without HR factor, run scored depends on batters after Soderstrom in lineup

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Corbin Carroll +450

  • Jorge Polanco +425

  • Cal Raleigh +280

  • Bobby Witt Jr. +650

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Kameron Misner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 7/10 in L10

    • Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games

    • Facing Will Warren, who’s struggled through 14 innings, allowing 8 runs on 9 hits—including 2 home runs

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Tyler Soderstrom OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+110 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.33 Runs per Game in L3

  • Facing Davis Martin, who’s given up 8 runs on 19 hits across 17 innings, including a pair of homers

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Eugenio Suarez UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150 DraftKings)

  • [9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging only 0.8 H/R/RBIs over his last 5 games

  • Facing Edward Cabrera, who gave up just 2 runs on 4 hits in his season debut

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team