High-Confidence Props to Start a New Week

Singles, Runs, and Overs Highlight Monday’s Slate

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 18, 2025

Yesterday didn’t go quite as planned as we finished 2-3 for -0.9 units, but cashing a pair of plus-money plays kept the damage minimal. Even with the slip-up, we’re still sitting at +6.6 units in August, and today’s card is built to push us right back on track. With Noelvi Marte, Adam Frazier, Michael Harris II, and the Angels all in favorable spots, we’re looking to lean on hot bats and strong matchups to keep the month trending green.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/17): 2-3 (40%; -0.90 Units)

MLB: 191-162 (54%; +24.5 Units)

August ‘25: 32-22 (59%; +6.6 Units)

All-Time: 316-263 (55%; +59.7 Units)

🎯 Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.636 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 7 over

Key Analysis

Noelvi Marte’s OVER 0.5 singles at -125 on DraftKings looks like a strong play given his consistency at the plate. He’s on a 7-game streak of hitting this prop, with singles in each of his last five and averaging 1.33 per game over his last three and 1.2 over his last five, well above his 0.636 season average. Marte owns a solid .315 batting average vs right-handed pitching, giving him a favorable split. He’ll face Victor Mederos, who has allowed 5 hits over 8 innings this season, and the Reds allowed 30 hits in 3 games vs Milwaukee.

Risk Factors

  • XBH does not cash

🎯 Adam Frazier OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.505 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Adam Frazier’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -105 on BetMGM lines up well with both recent form and matchup. He’s gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last three, while averaging 3.33 H/R/RBIs over his last three and 2.6 over his last five, far above his 1.505 season average. Since the All-Star break, Frazier has been swinging a hot bat with an .828 OPS, showing extra pop and on-base consistency. He owns a .283 batting average vs right-handed pitching and faces Jack Leiter, who has a 3.94 ERA with 16 hits and 7 earned runs allowed over his last five starts.

Risk Factors

  • May need others in the lineup to help cash

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🎯 Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: +120 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Run Scored

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 R/G

  • Season Average: 0.344 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3

  • 4 out of last 5

  • 6 out of last 7

Key Analysis

Michael Harris II’s OVER 0.5 runs scored at +120 on FanDuel offers appealing value given both his recent scoring surge and the matchup. He’s crossed the plate in 6 of his last 7 games, averaging 1 run per game over his last five, which is nearly triple his 0.344 season average. Harris is coming off a 1-run performance and has been consistently getting on base and capitalizing on the Braves’ strong lineup behind him. He’ll face Yoendrys Gómez, who carries a 5.56 ERA and has given up 7 earned runs in just 8.2 innings pitched, while the White Sox bullpen has been shaky, allowing 9 earned runs over their last three games.

Risk Factors

  • Harris will need to get on base an likely need help from others in the lineup to score

🎯 Los Angeles Angels OVER 4.5 Team Runs

Best Price: +104 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 11 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5.33 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.8 R/G

  • Season Average: 4.44 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 1 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

The Angels’ OVER 4.5 team runs at +104 on FanDuel has strong support from recent scoring trends and the matchup. Los Angeles has gone over this number in 7 of their last 10 games, averaging 5.8 runs over their last five and 5.33 over their last three, both comfortably above their 4.44 season average. They’re coming off an 11-run outburst and now face Brady Singer, who carries a 4.32 ERA and has allowed 12 earned runs across his last five starts. The Reds bullpen hasn’t offered much relief either, giving up 9 runs in their three-game set against the Brewers.

Risk Factors

  • Today’s line is just over the Angels’ season average for runs per game

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Jackson Holliday

  • Riley Greene

  • Kyle Schwarber

  • Teoscar Hernandez

  • Rafael Devers

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+120 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

    • Averaging 1 R/G over his last 7

    • He’ll face Yoendrys Gómez, who carries a 5.56 ERA and has given up 7 earned runs in just 8.2 innings pitched, while the White Sox bullpen has been shaky, allowing 9 earned runs over their last three games

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Singles (-125 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 7/7 in L7

  • Averaging 1.2 singles per game in L5

  • Marte owns a solid .315 batting average vs right-handed pitching, giving him a favorable split against Victor Mederos, who has allowed 5 hits over 8 innings this season, and the Reds allowed 30 hits in 3 games vs Milwaukee

2. ⚡ Adam Frazier OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 BetMGM)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • He owns a .283 batting average vs right-handed pitching and faces Jack Leiter, who has a 3.94 ERA with 16 hits and 7 earned runs allowed over his last five starts

3. 💥 Los Angeles Angels OVER 4.5 Team Runs (+104 FanDuel)

  • 7/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 5.8 R/G over their last 5

  • They’re coming off an 11-run outburst and now face Brady Singer, who carries a 4.32 ERA and has allowed 12 earned runs across his last five starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team