Most bettors love action.
Overs feel fun. More runs = more excitement. But that instinct? It’s costing the public money, night after night.

What if the sharp move wasn’t to root for fireworks, but to bet against them?

The Truth Behind High Totals

• Since 2023, MLB games with totals of 9+ runs have hit the under at a 73.4% clip

• That’s not a fluke: it’s +26.1 units and a 7.3% ROI from simply fading inflated lines

• Why it works: Books know the public loves the over and shade the line accordingly

• Sharp bettors? They wait, then strike.

So... Should You Only Bet Unders?

Not exactly.

There’s value on overs too, but only in select spots:

• Team totals in the 4.5 range (e.g. Blue Jays, Mets, Red Sox on hot streaks)

• Matchups vs shaky pitching

• When you act early, before the public pushes lines up

This is where being surgical pays off.

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Timing Matters Too

In July, the public gets roasted.
Since 2022, majority bettors have posted a -12.5% ROI this month.

Why? Casuals flood the market during summer.
You can either chase like them — or pick your spots and take their money.

Want a Smarter Workflow?

Our latest blog post lays out a step-by-step process for:

• Spotting inflated totals before they trap you

• Timing selective overs for max value

• Avoiding the biggest mistake most MLB bettors make

👉 Get the entire strategy if you’re tired of sweating out 12-run totals with the rest of the public.

Stop chasing action. Start hunting value.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team