Hits & Buckets: Chasing the Over

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 22, 2025

We went 1-1 yesterday with one DNP. Tough break on Pete Alonso—he made it to third, but the inning ended on a line-out, tag-out double play. Brutal way to lose a prop. Today, we’ve got a loaded MLB slate and more NBA playoff action on deck. Let’s lock in and get this money!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/21): 1-1 (50%)

MLB: 29-23 (56%)

NBA: 111-84 (57%)

April ‘25: 40-30 (57%)

All-Time: 150-122 (55%)

🎯 Nathaniel Lowe OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +100 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.091 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 87

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 1 out of last 3 over

  • 2 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Nathaniel Lowe is in a solid spot to hit his Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop tonight, especially at plus money (+100 on ESPN Bet). He’s coming off a strong showing in his last game with 4 combined H/R/RBIs, and while his 3- and 5-game averages (1.67 and 1.6) are just shy of the line, his season average sits comfortably above it at 2.09. He’s hit this number in 7 of his last 10 games, showing he’s more than capable of stringing together productive nights. Tonight, he faces Dean Kremer, who’s been hittable this season—allowing 14 runs on 25 hits through 19.2 innings. Lowe owns a .250 average against Kremer and there's real potential for him to be involved in run production.

Risk Factors

  • Prop can dependent on others in Lineup to perform

🎯 Cal Raleigh OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.227 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Cal Raleigh looks like a strong play to go Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs tonight, even at the slightly juiced -135 price on ESPN Bet. He’s been on a heater lately, posting 4 H/R/RBIs in his last game and averaging 3.8 over his last 5. On the season, he’s averaging 2.23—well above the line—and he’s cleared this prop in 7 of his last 10 games. Raleigh faces Brayan Bello tonight, who’s making his first start back from the IL. That could mean some rust, and Raleigh has already had success against him with a .375 average in 8 at-bats. Adding to the appeal, Raleigh has shown serious power at Fenway Park throughout his career. In 22 games played there, he’s hit 9 home runs while posting a .233 batting average, .333 on-base percentage, .593 slugging, and a .926 OPS. His swing plays well in this ballpark, and with how hot he's been lately, this looks like a high-upside spot. Backed by an 86 confidence score, there's solid value here despite the odds.

Risk Factors

  • Prop can dependent on others in Lineup to perform

🎯 Byron Buxton OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -115 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.85 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 78

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Byron Buxton is in a good spot to hit the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop tonight, with the best price currently at -115 on ESPN Bet. He’s been swinging a hot bat lately, racking up 6 total bases in his last game and averaging 3.67 TB over his last 3 games. While his season average sits at 1.85, he’s trending well above that right now. He’s cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 games, showing strong recent form. Buxton gets a favorable matchup against Davis Martin, who has struggled to keep hitters off the bases this season—allowing 27 hits across just 22.1 innings pitched. With Buxton seeing the ball well and Martin proving hittable, this is a solid value play backed by a 78 confidence score.

Risk Factors

  • Buxton’s high volatility at the plate

🎯 Derrick White OVER 18.5 Points + Assists

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 32 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 27 PA/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 24.4 PA/G

  • Season Average: 21.3 PA/G

  • Confidence Score: 99

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 10 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Derrick White is in an excellent spot to go Over 18.5 Points + Assists tonight, with great value at -110 on DraftKings. He’s been on a consistent tear, clearing this line in 10 straight games. His recent averages—27 PA over his last 3 games and 24.4 over his last 5—are well above the line, and his season average of 21.3 PA/G adds further support. White has also been strong at home, averaging 22.3 Points + Assists per game on his own floor this season. With a sky-high confidence score of 99, this prop is as consistent as it gets. He’s playing a vital role in Boston’s offense and facilitating at a high level. As long as the minutes and pace stay steady, he should have no problem continuing this streak and cashing the over once again.

Risk Factors

  • Averaging just 17.5 in 2 games against Magic this season

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Cal Raleigh +330

  • Gunnar Henderson +700

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. +320

  • Elly De La Cruz +650

  • Austin Riley +400

  • Tommy Edman +400

  • Yordan Alverez +280

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Nathaniel Lowe OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100 ESPN Bet)

    • Most consistent trend: 7/10 in L10

    • Season Average of 2.09 H/R/RBIs per Game

    • Facing Dean Kremer, who’s been hittable this season—allowing 14 runs on 25 hits through 19.2 innings

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Cal Raleigh OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 4/5 in L5

  • Averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs per Game in L5

  • Raleigh has shown serious power at Fenway Park throughout his career. In 22 games played there, he’s hit 9 home runs while posting a .233 batting average, .333 on-base percentage, .593 slugging, and a .926 OPS

2. ⚡ Byron Buxton OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-115 ESPN Bet)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 3 TB/G over last 5

  • Favorable matchup against Davis Martin, who has struggled to keep hitters off the bases this season—allowing 27 hits across just 22.1 innings pitched.

3. 💥 Derrick White OVER 18.5 Points + Assists (-110 DraftKings)

  • 10/L10 games going OVER

  • Recent averages—27 PA over his last 3 games and 24.4 over his last 5

  • Strong at home, averaging 22.3 Points + Assists per game on his own floor this season

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team