We hope you enjoyed yesterday’s change of pace—a longer, more in-depth letter focused on betting education and strategy rather than just daily picks. We’ll be mixing in more content like that going forward to help sharpen your edge. Today, we’re back to business with a loaded MLB slate and some red-hot hitters we’re looking to ride on their OVERs.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

NBA: 111-84 (57%)

MLB: 31-25 (55%)

April ‘25: 42-32 (57%)

All-Time: 152-124 (55%)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 TJ Friedl OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Average: 2.261 2 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

TJ Friedl’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop looks like a strong play today, backed by consistent recent performance and a favorable matchup. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, and is averaging 3 H/R/RBIs over that recent 5-game stretch—well above the 1.5 threshold. His season average sits at 2.26 per game, showing long-term consistency. Friedl also has a solid .300 average against left-handed pitching this year, and he faces Kyle Freeland, who has struggled mightily—allowing 14 runs on 30 hits in just 26 innings. This prop presents good value with both form and matchup on Friedl’s side.

Risk Factors

• First time facing Freeland

• Success may be dependent on other in the lineup

🎯 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -140 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Average: 2.23 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Confidence Score: 87

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Bobby Witt Jr.’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop is another solid option, priced at -140 on ESPN Bet. Witt has been producing steadily, hitting this number in 7 of his last 10 games and averaging 2.2+ H/R/RBIs over both his last 3 and 5 games. His season-long average of 2.23 shows this isn’t just a hot streak—it’s sustainable output. He’s coming off a big 4 H/R/RBI performance and faces Hayden Wesneski, who’s given up 10 runs on 16 hits over 23 innings, making this a favorable spot. With Witt’s current form and matchup make this a prop worth backing.

Risk Factors

• Wesneski 25 Ks in 23 IP

🎯 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 3 TB/G

• Season Average: 2.76 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Aaron Judge’s OVER 1.5 Total Bases prop at -135 on ESPN Bet is backed by strong momentum and an elite matchup. He’s gone over this number in each of his last 3 games, averaging 3.67 total bases over that stretch and 3.0 over his last 5. His season average of 2.76 TB/G also clears the line comfortably. Historically, Judge has crushed José Berríos, batting .344 with 4 home runs in 32 at-bats. With Berríos allowing a hit per inning so far this season (28 hits in 28.2 IP), Judge is in a prime position to stay hot.

Risk Factors

• Judge has been hot but can be streaky and hit short slumps

🎯 Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Average: 3.24 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Corbin Carroll’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is one of the most consistent trends on the board, hitting in 9 of his last 10 games and averaging a scorching 4.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3. Even his season average of 3.24 nearly doubles the line, making the -110 price on DraftKings look like solid value. He’s coming off a 3 H/R/RBI performance and has a decent track record against Chris Sale (2-for-5), who’s allowed 16 runs on 31 hits in just 23.1 innings this season. With Carroll’s form and matchup point to another productive outing.

Risk Factors

• Sale has the ability to shut Arizona down

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Aaron Judge +170

• Elly De La Cruz +450

• Austin Riley +380

• Andrew Benintendi +500

• Shohei Ohtani +310

• Matt Chapman +450

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

   • Averaging a scorching 4.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3

   • Facing Chris Sale (2-for-5 career against), who’s allowed 16 runs on 31 hits in just 23.1 innings this season

Trending Overs

1. 📈 TJ Friedl OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per Game in L5

• Friedl has a solid .300 average against left-handed pitching this year, and he faces Kyle Freeland, who has struggled mightily—allowing 14 runs on 30 hits in just 26 innings

2. ⚡Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140 ESPN Bet)

• 7/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 2.2 H/R/RBIs per Game in L5

• Facing Hayden Wesneski, who’s given up 10 runs on 16 hits over 23 innings

3. 💥 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-135 ESPN Bet)

• 4/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 2.76 TB/G this season

• Judge has crushed José Berríos, batting .344 with 4 home runs in 32 at-bats and Berríos is allowing a hit per inning so far this season (28 hits in 28.2 IP)

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team