Hot Bats & Long Odds: Plus Money Overs

Informed Insights. Easy Action. Daily Edges.

Author

Sage Davis
May 04, 2025

Tough break yesterday — we went 1-2 with one DNP due to a postponement. We were just one out away from a winning day before the Marlins stunned the A’s with a two-out walk-off grand slam. But we bounce back today with a loaded MLB day-game slate and a high-stakes Game 7 between the Warriors and Rockets to close out the night. Let’s lock in and hunt some plus-money value.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/03): 1-2 (33%; -1.23 units)

MLB: 42-45 (48%; +8.76 units)

NBA: 115-85 (58%; +42.4 units))

May ‘25: 3-3 (50%; -.74 units)

All-Time: 167-145 (54%; +45 units)

🎯 Luis Urias OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -140 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.364 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Luis Urías' OVER 0.5 Total Bases prop at -140 on ESPN Bet presents strong value based on both recent performance and season trends. He’s gone over this number in 3 straight games, and 8 of his last 10, showcasing consistent production at the plate. His recent averages—2 TB/G over his last 3 games and 1.4 TB/G over his last 5—are well above the line, and his season average of 1.364 TB/G further supports the over. With Edward Cabrera allowing 22 hits in just 18.2 innings, there’s a favorable matchup angle here as well.

Risk Factors

  • Cabrera averages over 1 K/IP

🎯 Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.588 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +105 on BetMGM offers plus-money value backed by a strong recent stretch and favorable underlying metrics. He’s averaging 3.67 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 3.0 over his last 5, both comfortably above the line. He’s cleared this number in 2 of his last 3, 3 of his last 5, and 7 of his last 10. While he’s just 1-for-3 career against Freddy Peralta, the Brewers starter has allowed 11 earned runs on 28 hits over his last 7 outings, suggesting a hittable matchup. Add in PCA’s .283 batting average vs right-handers and 16 RBIs on the year, and this prop carries clear upside, especially at plus odds.

Risk Factors

  • Peralta has a high K rate (5.85/G over last 7)

🎯 Will Warren OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -132 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 Ks

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 K/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.4 K/G

  • Season Average: 4.33 K/G

  • Confidence Score: 75

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Will Warren’s OVER 4.5 Strikeouts at -132 on FanDuel is a borderline play with some encouraging trends but moderate risk. While his season average (4.33 K/G) and last 5-game average (4.4 K/G) sit just below the line, he’s managed to hit the over in 4 of his last 5 games, showing recent improvement. His last outing of 5 strikeouts matched the prop exactly, and he’s cleared it in 2 of his last 3. The matchup adds value—Tampa Bay is striking out 8.3 times per game this season, including 8.0 per game over their last 3, giving Warren a decent chance to capitalize.

Risk Factors

  • 1 K game was against todays opponents, the Rays.

🎯 Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 RBIs

Best Price: +120 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 RBIs/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 RBIs/G

  • Season Average: .657 RBIs/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Rafael Devers’ OVER 0.5 RBIs at +120 on FanDuel is a high-upside value play, supported by both recent performance and matchup data. He drove in 2 RBIs last game, averaging 1.2 over his last 5. His season average of 0.657 RBIs/G remains above the prop line, and he’s hit the over in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10, making this a consistent trend. Devers is also 3-for-4 in his career vs Chris Paddack, including an RBI, and Paddack has allowed 17 runs on 27 hits in his last 27.1 innings, suggesting more scoring chances. Combine that with Devers’ .264 average and 18 RBIs vs righties, and this prop stands out as one of the stronger plus-money options on the board.

Risk Factors

  • Will need runners on base

🎯 Phillies Moneyline

Best Price: -127 on BetRIvers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Won

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2-1

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4-1

  • Season Average: 19-14

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 won

  • 4 out of last 5 won

Key Analysis

The Phillies Moneyline at -127 on BetRivers looks like a strong play based on both recent form and a favorable pitching matchup. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 5 and 2 of their last 3, pushing their season record to a solid 19-14. Their current momentum, paired with a struggling Diamondbacks starter in Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 6.06 ERA over his last 6 starts), adds significant betting value. Rodriguez has been hit hard, allowing 22 runs on 39 hits during that stretch, giving the Phillies' offense a clear edge.

Risk Factors

  • Even matchup in terms of R/G and Runs allowed per game

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Pete Alonso +330

  • Salvador Perez +425

  • Manny Machado +270

  • Brent Rooker +450

  • Matt Chapman +330

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 RBIs (+120 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • 1.2 RBIs/G over last 5 games

    • Devers is also 3-for-4 in his career vs Chris Paddack, including an RBI, and Paddack has allowed 17 runs on 27 hits in his last 27.1 innings

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Luis Urias OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-140 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.4 TB/G in L5

  • Edward Cabrera allowing 22 hits in just 18.2 innings this season

2. ⚡ Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 BetMGM)

  • 3/L5 games going OVER

  • 3 H/R/RBIs per Game over last 5 games

  • Freddy Peralta has allowed 11 earned runs on 28 hits over his last 7 outings, suggesting a hittable matchup. PCA .283 batting average vs right-handers including 16 RBIs on the year

3. 💥 Will Warren OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-132 FanDuel)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • 4.4 Ks per game over last 5 games

  • Tampa Bay is striking out 8.3 times per game this season, including 8.0 per game over their last 3

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline ([ODDS] [BOOK])

  • Strong trend but even matchup in terms of runs scored and runs allowed per game

  • Diamondbacks starter in Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 6.06 ERA over his last 6 starts), adds significant betting value. Rodriguez has been hit hard, allowing 22 runs on 39 hits during that stretch

  • Phillies offense will need to capitalize on Rodriguez’s recent struggles

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team