Hot Bats & Strong Arms: MLB Props With Value

Four player props backed by recent form and matchup data

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 26, 2025

We came up just short on TNF, missing profit by only 5 yards from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so we’ll call it an even night. Now it’s the final weekend of the MLB regular season, and we’re shifting focus to hitters and pitchers who are outperforming expectations. The trends are strong, the confidence scores are high, and we’re locked in on four props that give us a clear edge. Time to close the season on a profitable note and see some green.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/25): 2-2 (50%; -0.16 Units)

MLB: 225-204 (52%; +16 Units)

September ‘25: 38-48 (44%; -5.7 Units)

All-Time: 371-333 (53%; +50.8 Units)

🎯 Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.75 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Merrill has been swinging a hot bat, posting multiple bases in 8 of his last 10 games and averaging 3 total bases over his last five. He’s also shown good pop in that stretch with 5 homers and 3 doubles, giving him several paths to clear this number. The matchup adds more appeal, he owns an .849 OPS vs right-handed pitching and faces Zac Gallen, who has allowed 11 hits across two starts against San Diego this season and is giving up 3.4 hits per outing over his last five. With Merrill logging five multi-hit games in his last 10, this +120 line offers solid value at a strong confidence score of 92.

Risk Factors

  • Gallen has a high K rate, as many as 13 Ks in a single outing this season

🎯 Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +116 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.2 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.512 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Baldwin has been consistently delivering extra-base production, clearing this mark in 8 of his last 10 games while averaging over 3 total bases per contest in that span. He’s logged 5 multi-hit games over that stretch and flashed plenty of power with 4 homers, 3 doubles, and even a triple. His .799 OPS vs right-handers matches up well against Mitch Keller, who has been hittable lately, surrendering 4 hits per outing over his last five starts, including 6 home runs allowed. With Baldwin’s recent power surge and consistent contact, this line offers value at plus money backed by a 90 confidence score.

Risk Factors

  • Will need an XBH or multi-hit game to cash

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🎯 Sandy Alcantara OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 8 SO

  • Last 3-Game Average: 6.67 SO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 6.6 SO/G

  • Season Average: 4.633 SO/G

  • Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 6 out of last 7 over

Key Analysis

Alcantara looks well-positioned to clear this line, having gone over in 6 of his last 7 starts while averaging 6.6 strikeouts across his last five. He just fanned 8 in his most recent outing and already notched 6 strikeouts against the Mets earlier this month. New York is striking out 7 times per game over their last three, and with Alcantara rounding into form, this number feels a touch too low. At near even money, the 89 confidence score makes this prop an appealing angle.

Risk Factors

  • Mets get their bats going early and Alcantara does not stay in long enough to hit this line

🎯 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -121 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.043 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Bohm has been a steady producer at the plate, clearing this line in 8 of his last 10 games and averaging nearly 4 combined H/R/RBIs across his last five. He’s swinging well against righties with a .325 OBP and should see opportunities against Joe Ryan, who has been hittable of late, allowing 5.2 hits and 3.4 earned runs per outing over his last five starts. With Philadelphia’s lineup consistently setting the table and Bohm’s ability to drive in runs or score them himself, this prop lines up well with his recent form.

Risk Factors

  • Bohm is slightly more efficient against LHP

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 3 TB/G over his last 5

    • Merrill owns a .849 OPS vs right-handed pitching and faces Zac Gallen, who has allowed 11 hits across two starts against San Diego this season and is giving up 3.4 hits per outing over his last five

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Drake Baldwin OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+116 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 3.2 TB/G in L5

  • His .799 OPS vs right-handers matches up well against Mitch Keller, who has been hittable lately, surrendering 4 hits per outing over his last five starts, including 6 home runs allowed

2. ⚡ Sandy Alcantara OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105 BetMGM)

  • 6/L7 games going OVER

  • Averaging 6.6 SO/G over last 5

  • New York is striking out 7 times per game over their last three, and with Alcantara rounding into form, this number feels a touch too low

3. 💥 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-121 Caesars)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • He’s swinging well against righties with a .325 OBP and should see opportunities against Joe Ryan, who has been hittable of late, allowing 5.2 hits and 3.4 earned runs per outing over his last five starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team