We dropped a 5-leg MLB moneyline parlay on X yesterday at +674 odds, and it turned into a rollercoaster. We cashed a walk-off win, suffered an extra-innings loss, and even got burned by another walk-off defeat. To make it sting even more, both losing legs held 2-run leads at one point. That’s been the story of the past 10 days, close calls and bad beats. But with the final week of September ahead, we’re locked in and ready to flip the script.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 223-203 (52%; +15.52 units)

September ‘25: 34-45 (43%; -6 units)

All-Time: 367-330 (53%; +50.49 units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -134 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.264 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 96

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Josh Naylor’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -134 on Caesars looks like one of the strongest spots on the board today. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games and is averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs over his last 5, well above both his season average of 2.26 and the prop line itself. The matchup sets up favorably as well, Naylor owns a .361 OBP against right-handed pitching and draws Tanner Gordon, who carries a 6.00 ERA with 4.8 hits and 2.6 earned runs allowed per game across his last 5 outings. Given Naylor’s consistency, hot streak, and the soft matchup, the data backs this play with a 96 confidence score, making it a high-percentage target for today.

Risk Factors

• This prop may depend on others in the lineup to cash

🎯 Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.369 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Pete Alonso’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +105 on DraftKings brings strong value given both his recent form and the matchup. He’s averaging 3 H/R/RBIs across his last 5 games, comfortably above his season average of 2.37, and has cashed this line in 8 of his last 10 contests. While his OBP vs lefties sits at .302, he draws a favorable opponent in Boyd, who has struggled lately with 6.2 hits and 3.8 earned runs allowed per game over his last 5 starts. With Alonso’s power bat heating up and the pitcher’s recent inefficiency, the plus-money price paired with a 93 confidence score makes this a high-upside prop worth backing.

Risk Factors

• Boyd has as many as 9 strikeouts in a single start this season

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.

🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.

Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.

Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!

🎯 Brendan Donovan OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -139 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.077 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Brendan Donovan’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -139 on Caesars lines up as a strong play supported by both recent performance and matchup. He’s been on fire at the plate, averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 3.8 across his last 5. Donovan has cleared this line in 8 of his last 10, including five straight, showing consistent production. The matchup is also favorable: he owns an impressive .847 OPS against right-handers and faces Brubaker, a reliever stretched into starts who has given up 9 hits and 4 earned runs in just 8.2 recent innings. With Donovan locked in and facing vulnerable pitching, the 91 confidence score feels justified, making this a reliable prop to target.

Risk Factors

• Donovan is likely to see multiple arms in this matchup, as Brubaker is typically used in a relief role

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

   • Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5

   • Boyd has struggled lately with 6.2 hits and 3.8 earned runs allowed per game over his last 5 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-134 Caesars)

• Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

• Averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

• Naylor owns a .361 OBP against right-handed pitching and draws Tanner Gordon, who carries a 6.00 ERA with 4.8 hits and 2.6 earned runs allowed per game across his last 5 outings

2. ⚡ Brendan Donovan OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-139 Caesars)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 3.8 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

• Donovan owns an impressive .847 OPS against right-handers and faces Brubaker, a reliever stretched into starts who has given up 9 hits and 4 earned runs in just 8.2 recent innings

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team