Hot Starts & Full Slates: Chasing Back-to-Back Sweeps

Targeting value with steady hitters, a dominant ace, and a plus-money spot

We kicked off the week with a clean 4-0 sweep on Monday, banking 3.37 units of profit. Today, we’re looking to ride that momentum by targeting hot bats and strong arms across a full MLB slate — with action starting as early as 2:10 PM ET. We’re locked in and ready to keep cashing. Keep an eye out for our upcoming ladder challenge dropping soon.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 116-104 (53%; +13.4 Units)

June ‘25: 29-21 (58%; +4.26 Units)

All-Time: 241-206 (54%; +47.6 Units)

🎯 Zack Wheeler UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/G

  • Season Average: 4.2 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Zack Wheeler has been lights out lately, making the under on 5.5 hits allowed a strong play. He’s stayed under this line in 10 straight starts, with a season average of just 4.2 hits allowed and a 5-game average of 3.6. Over his last three outings, he’s allowing only 3.67 hits per game. The matchup also works in his favor—the Astros have averaged just 7 hits per game over their last 3 and 8.59 on the season, trending slightly down. With Wheeler in dominant form and Houston’s offense cooling off, the under looks like the sharper side once again.

Risk Factors

  • Astros strong offense

🎯 Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -140 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.743 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3

  • 5 out of last 5

  • 8 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Christian Yelich is seeing the ball well, and the over on 0.5 total bases looks like a strong value despite the tough matchup. He’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games, including 5 straight, with a 5-game average of 3.6 TB and a season mark of 1.743. He owns a .357 OBP vs righties and faces Paul Skenes, who’s allowed 3+ hits in 9 of his last 10 starts. While Skenes is a high-strikeout arm, Yelich’s recent consistency and ability to find barrels make him a solid bet to reach at least one base today.

Risk Factors

  • Skenes’ high K rate

🎯 Jake Mangum OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.977 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jake Mangum has been producing steadily, making the over on 1.5 H/R/RBIs a solid play. He’s hit this mark in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10, with a 5-game average of 2 per game—well above the line. His season average of 1.977 supports the consistency, and he’s showing strong on-base ability with a .377 OBP vs right-handed pitching. He faces Michael Wacha, who’s struggled mightily of late, allowing 41 hits and 16 runs over his last 7 starts. With Mangum’s recent form and a hittable arm on the mound, he’s in a great spot to stay productive.

Risk Factors

  • Wacha has been unpredictable, only allowed 2 H and 1 R in last start

🎯 Seattle Mariners Moneyline

Best Price: +116 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Win

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2-1

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3-2

  • Season Average: 40-37

  • Confidence Score: 80

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 won

  • 3 out of last 5 won

  • 7 out of last 10 won

Key Analysis

The Mariners are trending in the right direction and look like a solid value play on the moneyline at +116. They've won 7 of their last 10, including back-to-back wins in this series, and are going for the sweep today. Offensively, their bats have come alive, giving them the edge in a matchup against Joe Ryan, who—despite a strong 7-3 record—has allowed 2+ runs in each of his last 4 starts. The Twins’ bullpen has also been shaky with a 4.41 ERA. While George Kirby has been hittable at times, Seattle’s recent momentum and plus-money value make this a live dog worth backing.

Risk Factors

  • Uneven pitching matchup

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Zack Wheeler UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 10/10 in L10

    • Allowing an average of just 3.6 H/G over last 5 starts

    • The Astros have averaged just 7 hits per game over their last 3 and 8.59 on the season, trending slightly down

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-140 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 3.6 TB/G in L5

  • He owns a .357 OBP vs righties and faces Paul Skenes, who’s allowed 3+ hits in 9 of his last 10 starts

2. ⚡ Jake Mangum OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • His season average of 1.977 supports the consistency, and he’s showing strong on-base ability with a .377 OBP vs right-handed pitching

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Seattle Mariners Moneyline (+116 FanDuel)

  • Strong trend but features a lopsided pitching matchup favoring the Twins

  • Offensively, their bats have come alive, giving them the edge in a matchup against Joe Ryan, who—despite a strong 7-3 record—has allowed 2+ runs in each of his last 4 starts

  • The Twins’ bullpen has also been shaky with a 4.41 ERA and the Mariners bats have been hot

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team