June Heat Check: Back the Bats, Fade the Slumps

Naylor’s surge continues, McCutchen’s matchup shines, Rice’s struggles create an edge.

June may have started slow, but we’ve clawed our way back to just about even and the momentum is finally swinging our way! Today’s MLB slate brings some juicy matchups, and we’ve lined up a few high-confidence props we love. Time to ride the wave, trust the data, and cash some slips — let’s make it a profitable day!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 107-102 (51%; +7.86 Units)

June ‘25: 20-19 (51%; -1.3 Units)

All-Time: 232-204 (53%; +42.05 Units)

🎯 Ben Rice UNDER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -130 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: .67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: .40 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.556 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ben Rice has struggled to generate much power lately, making the UNDER 1.5 Total Bases a strong value at -130 on Caesars. Despite a solid season average of 1.556 TB/G, his recent performance paints a different picture—averaging just 0.67 total bases over his last 3 games and 0.40 over his last 5. He’s failed to clear this line in 10 straight games, with only four singles across that span. His OPS in June sits at a weak .421, and though he’s faced Kochanowicz before, he's managed just a .500 OPS in those limited at-bats. Kochanowicz may be hittable, but Rice's cold bat and lack of extra-base production means he'd need a rare breakout to ruin this under.

Risk Factors

  • Kochanowicz 39 hits over last 34.1 IP

🎯 Andrew McCutchen OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -143 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Season Average: .906 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Andrew McCutchen is a reliable option to notch at least one hit tonight, making the OVER 0.5 Hits appealing at -143 on BetRivers. He’s hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10, maintaining a steady 1 hit per game over both his last 3 and 5-game spans. His season average of 0.906 hits per game aligns well with this consistency. McCutchen has historically thrived against lefties, batting .303 vs LHP this season, and carries a respectable .255 average in June. He’ll face Tarik Skubal, who has allowed 13 hits over his last 3 outings, giving McCutchen a favorable opportunity to keep the streak alive.

Risk Factors

  • 0-for-3 career vs Skubal

🎯 Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +100 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.386 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Josh Naylor is red hot right now, making his OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop at +100 on Caesars a strong value play. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of the last 5, while averaging a stellar 3.2 H/R/RBIs per game over that stretch. On the season, he’s posting a healthy 2.386 H/R/RBIs per game and has been especially productive in June with an .842 OPS. He’s also been efficient in clutch spots, sporting a .816 OPS with runners in scoring position. With Eric Lauer on the mound—a lefty who’s given up 15 hits and 6 runs over his last 26 innings—Naylor is in a strong spot to keep producing.

Risk Factors

  • Naylor’s stats drop some vs LHP

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Mike Trout +380

  • Cal Raleigh +360

  • Gleyber Torres +600

  • Jordan Westburg +350

  • Jackson Chourio +750

  • Jose Ramirez +425

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100 Caesars)

    • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

    • Averaging 3.2 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

    • Naylor has been especially productive in June with an .842 OPS

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Andrew McCutchen OVER 0.5 Hits (-143 BetRivers)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1 H/G in L5

  • McCutchen has historically thrived against lefties, batting .303 vs LHP this season, and carries a respectable .255 average in June

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Ben Rice UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-130 Caesars)

  • 10/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 0.4 TB/G over last 5 games

  • Rice’s OPS in June sits at a weak .421, and though he’s faced Kochanowicz before, he's managed just a .500 OPS in those limited at-bats

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team