Keeping the Trend Alive: 2 Player Props with Big Edges

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 28, 2025

Table of Contents

Our NCAA picks split yesterday, with BYU hitting the over in their loss to Alabama, while Duke fell just short of covering -9.5 in their 7-point win over Arizona. Today, we’ve got 4 Sweet 16 matchups, plus key MLB and NBA plays to break down. Let’s find the edges and cash in!

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/28): 1-1 (50%)

NBA: 97-68 (58.8%)

Mar ‘25: 37-29 (56%)

All-Time: 106-82 (56.4%)

Ole Miss (6) vs. Michigan State (2)

Ole Miss MONEYLINE (+150 on DraftKings - pictured) OR Ole Miss COVERS +3.5 (-105 on ESPN Bet)

These two wagers offer a fork in the road for our loyal subscribers: go bigger for the upset, or look safely to cover the spread. We feel that in this round, the SEC’s dominance will manifest. The remaining teams and bettors cannot be faint of heart at this point in the bracket, so you’ll have to call your shot. Regardless of your final choice, look for SEC teams facing Big Ten teams to perform well.

🎯 Derrick Jones Jr. OVER 7.5 Points

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 12 Points

  • Last 3-Game Average: 8.7 PPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 9.6 PPG

  • Season Average: 10.4 PPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. has been consistently outperforming tonight’s line, making the OVER 7.5 points a strong play. Over his last seven games, he's averaging 10 PPG, clearing this line by 2.5 points. In his last matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, he dropped 11 points, showing he can capitalize on this matchup. With the Clippers as heavy favorites against a struggling Nets team, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Jones Jr., especially in transition and off easy looks. Expect him to stay active and get past this number once again.

Risk Factors

  • Blow out could effect minutes played

🎯 Dennis Schroder UNDER 6.5 Assists

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 assists

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5 APG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.6 APG

  • Season Average: 5.3 APG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Dennis Schröder has consistently fallen short of tonight’s assist line, making the UNDER 6.5 assists a strong play. He has stayed under this number in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging just 4.6 APG over his last five. Against the Cavs this season, he’s averaging only 4 APG, failing to clear tonight’s line in both matchups. Cleveland’s defense is also a factor—they allow the 8th fewest assists per game to opponents, limiting playmakers from racking up dimes. With a tough matchup and recent trends favoring the under, Schröder is unlikely to hit 7+ assists tonight.

Risk Factors

  • As many as 14 assists in a single game this season

  • Tough matchup could mean less shooting and more play making

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Derrick Jones Jr. OVER 7.5 Points (-120 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 10 PPG in L7

  • In his last matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, he dropped 11 points

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Dennis Schroder UNDER 6.5 Assists (-140 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging 4.6 APG over last 5 games

  • Against the Cavs this season, he’s averaging only 4 APG, failing to clear tonight’s line in both matchups AND Cleveland allows the 8th fewest assists per game to opponents

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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