Sunday’s here and the board is buzzing with value. We’ve got sharp matchups, strong arms, and some quietly profitable trends lining up across the slate. From Freddy Peralta setting the tone in Milwaukee to a bounce-back spot for the Yankees at home, this card checks every box — reliable starters, exploitable matchups, and props that pop. We’re dialed in and ready to close the weekend with momentum. Let’s break it all down.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Matchups

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (07/12): 1-4 (20%; -3.17 Units)

MLB: 147-127 (54%; +20.1 Units)

July ‘25: 18-16 (53%; +1.74 Units)

All-Time: 272-228 (54%; +55.28)

💎 Today’s Featured Matchups

🎯 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins

Pitching Preview:

The Pirates send out Mitch Keller, who enters with a 3-10 record and a 3.58 ERA. Despite the lack of wins, Keller has been a model of consistency, logging 6+ innings in each of his last 8 starts. He’s keeping opponents in check, and giving Pittsburgh a chance nearly every time out.

The Twins counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, holding a 5-4 record and a 4.08 ERA. He’s not overpowering, but he’s been steady — averaging just under 7 strikeouts per 9 innings and showing solid command in recent outings.

Offensive Trends:

Run production leans slightly in Minnesota’s favor, with the Twins averaging 4.27 R/G compared to 3.40 R/G for the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s offense has lacked punch on the road, which could make run support hard to come by against a composed starter.

Prop Spotlight:

Twins Moneyline – Home advantage, more consistent offense, and the probable outcome in a pitchers’ duel, Pirates lack run support

Mitch Keller OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded – He’s cleared this in 8 straight starts; solid plus-money opportunity.

Simeon Woods Richardson OVER 5.5 Strikeouts – The Pirates' swing-happy lineup puts this in play.

Byron Buxton OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Buxton leads the team in power numbers and thrives against right-handers.

🎯 Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Pitching Preview:

The Brewers hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, who enters with a 10-4 record and a 2.74 ERA. Peralta has been dominant this season and is coming off six scoreless innings in his last outing. He’s gone 6+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts, flashing high strikeout upside and excellent command.

The Nationals counter with Jake Irvin, who carries a 7-4 record but a 4.78 ERA. Irvin has struggled to limit hard contact and has allowed 22 home runs this season. While he’s shown some ability to eat innings, inconsistency has been his downfall.

Offensive Trends:

The Brewers are producing 4.53 runs per game, while the Nationals sit at 4.10 R/G. Milwaukee has been particularly strong at home, and their bats have been heating up against weaker arms. Washington has some pop with CJ Abrams and James Wood, but they’ve been streaky.

Prop Spotlight:

Brewers Moneyline – Peralta’s current form and the home-field edge make this a clear lean.

Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts – He’s averaging over 10 K/9 and draws a Nationals team that lacks plate discipline.

Game Total UNDER 8.5 Runs – Two starters who can work deep and a Washington lineup that is performing below their average over last few games.

Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Total Bases – Batting in the heart of the order, Yelich is in a strong spot against Irvin’s fastball-heavy arsenal.

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🎯 Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees

Pitching Preview:

The Cubs give the ball to Shōta Imanaga, who enters with a 5-3 record and a 2.80 ERA. The lefty has been a stabilizing force in the rotation, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in 9 of 11 starts, though his swing-and-miss stuff has cooled off slightly.

The Yankees counter with Will Warren, who comes in with a 6-4 record and a 4.70 ERA. He’s allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 19 starts, showing he can hold his own when given run support. His home ERA has been more stable, making him a solid mid-rotation piece.

Offensive Trends:

New York holds the edge in run production, averaging 4.53 R/G compared to 4.29 for the Cubs. The Yankees are 30-18 at home, and their offense tends to rise against softer starters.

Prop Spotlight:

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs – Judge continues to rake at Yankee Stadium and crushes left-handed pitching.

Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Total Bases – Bellinger owns a strong career slash line against lefties and has quietly been hot at the plate with a 17 game hit streak.

Will Warren OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded – He’s pitched into the 6th in 3 of his last 4 starts, with solid efficiency.

Cubs Team Total UNDER 3.5 Runs – The matchup and ballpark lean toward a lower output day for Chicago.

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Aaron Judge +145

• Cody Bellinger +425

• Byron Buxton +285

• Christian Yelich +400

• Cal Raleigh +215

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team