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Locked-In Offense: Backing Bats That Just Keep Producing
Five hitters in rhythm with favorable matchups and stat-backed trends
Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
July 05, 2025
We came out swinging yesterday, going 4-1 and stacking a solid 2.78 units of profit to kick off July with momentum. The reads were sharp, the bats stayed hot, and we capitalized on the matchups just like we planned. Today, we’ve got 4.61 units of potential profit lined up across another carefully curated set of props—highlighted by red-hot hitters like Bobby Witt Jr. and Trevor Story. We’re also backing steady contact from guys like Josh Lowe and Caleb Durbin, who’ve quietly been delivering in their spots. From top-tier names to under-the-radar value, we’re locked in and ready to keep stacking wins. Let’s carry the energy into the weekend and make it back-to-back profitable days!
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (07/04): 4-1 (80%; +2.78 Units)
MLB: 135-114 (54%; +21 Units)
July ‘25: 6-3 (67%; +2.67 Units)
All-Time: 260-215 (55%; +56.2 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Jo Adell OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: +120 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 1.888 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 99
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Jo Adell is on an absolute heater, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +120 is packed with value. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with a scorching 4.33 average over his last 3 and 4.0 over his last 5. He’s posted a .320 OBP and .500 SLG vs right-handed pitching and draws Max Scherzer, who’s looked shaky with a 4.85 ERA—allowing 3+ hits and 2+ runs in all three of his starts this season. With Adell crushing the ball and facing a vulnerable arm, this plus-money play is tough to pass up.
Risk Factors
Max Scherzer has the ability to be dominant
🎯 Caleb Durbin OVER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: +105 on FanDuel
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 1B
Last 3-Game Average: 1 1B/G
Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G
Season Average: 0.597 1B/G
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Caleb Durbin is making the most of his opportunities, and the over on 0.5 singles at plus money is a sharp value play. He’s recorded a single in 8 of his last 10 games, including three multi-single outings, with a 5-game average of 1.2 and a 3-game average of 1.0. He’s getting on base at a solid .324 clip vs right-handed pitching and faces Cal Quantrill, who has allowed 3+ hits in seven straight starts. With Durbin’s steady contact and a hittable arm on the mound, he’s in a great spot to keep the streak going.
Risk Factors
XBH does not cash
🎯 Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -115 on FanDuel
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 1B
Last 3-Game Average: 1 1B/G
Last 5-Game Average: 1 1B/G
Season Average: 0.659 1B/G
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Josh Lowe has been consistently putting the ball in play, and the over on 0.5 singles is a solid look at -115. He’s hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, with a steady 1.0 singles per game over his last 5. He’s batting .348 against right-handed pitching and faces Cole Sands, who typically works short outings and allows just over 1 hit per inning—likely signaling a bullpen-heavy game. With Lowe’s contact skills and matchup versatility, he’s in a strong spot to notch at least one base knock today.
Risk Factors
XBH does not cash
🎯 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -145 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.281 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Bobby Witt Jr. is absolutely locked in, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is one of the strongest plays on the board despite the juice. He’s cleared this line in 8 straight games, averaging 4.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 and 4.0 over his last 5—well above his season average of 2.281. Witt owns a .328 OBP and .495 slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching and faces Ryne Nelson, who has a respectable 3.61 ERA but isn’t likely to slow down Witt’s current tear. With elite form and a favorable split, Bobby is set up to stay hot.
Risk Factors
Nelson had 7 SO in each of his last 2 starts
🎯 Trevor Story OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -125 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 11 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 5.67 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 5 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.071 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 90
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Trevor Story is on an offensive tear, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs looks like strong value at -125. He’s crushed this line in 5 straight games and 8 of his last 10, with an eye-popping 5.67 average over his last 3. His season average of 2.071 H/R/RBIs backs up the consistency, and he’s been effective vs lefties with a .306 OBP and .432 SLG. He faces Mitchell Parker, who has a 4.63 ERA and has allowed 6+ hits in four straight starts. With Story locked in and facing a hittable lefty, he’s in a great spot to stay hot.
Risk Factors
Cashing may depend on others in the lineup to perform
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Byron Buxton +250
Pete Crow-Armstrong +425
Kyle Schwarber +255
Sean Murphy +550
Willy Adames +400
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Jo Adell OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120 BetMGM)
Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Facing Max Scherzer, who’s looked shaky with a 4.85 ERA—allowing 3+ hits and 2+ runs in all three of his starts this season
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Caleb Durbin OVER 0.5 Singles (+105 FanDuel)
Hot streak: 8/10 in L10
Averaging 1.2 singles per game in L5
He’s getting on base at a solid .324 clip vs right-handed pitching and faces Cal Quantrill, who has allowed 3+ hits in seven straight starts
2. ⚡ Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 Singles (-115 FanDuel)
8/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 1 single per game over last 5
He’s batting .348 against right-handed pitching and faces Cole Sands, who typically works short outings and allows just over 1 hit per inning—likely signaling a bullpen-heavy game
3. 💥 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145 DraftKings)
8/L8 games going OVER
Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Witt owns a .328 OBP and .495 slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching and faces Ryne Nelson, who has a respectable 3.61 ERA but isn’t likely to slow down Witt’s current tear
4. 🚀 Trevor Story OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 BetMGM)
5/L5 games going OVER
Averaging 5 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Has been effective vs lefties with a .306 OBP and .432 SLG and faces Mitchell Parker, who has a 4.63 ERA and has allowed 6+ hits in four straight starts
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team