Locked-In & Paying Out: Targeting High-Hit Rate Plays

Four props with elite hit rates, plus-money value, and favorable matchups

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
July 02, 2025

We wrapped up June with over 10 units of profit and a 61% win rate—strong numbers we’re aiming to carry straight into July. To kick things off, we’ve locked in 4 high-value props backed by elite hit rates and favorable matchups. Let’s start the new month on the right foot and keep stacking green.

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.

🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.

Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.

Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 129-110 (54%; +19.35 Units)

All-Time: 254-212 (55%; +53.54 Units)

🎯 Kyle Stowers OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Kyle Stowers is locked in, and the over on 1.5 H/R/RBIs at plus money is one of the sharpest looks on the board. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with an eye-popping 4.0 average over his last 5. His season average of 2 H/R/RBIs backs the consistency, and he has an impressive .349 OBP vs right-handed pitching. He faces Simeon Woods Richardson, who has a 4.63 ERA and is allowing more than a hit per inning on average. With elite recent production and a hittable matchup, Stowers is in a prime spot to stay hot.

Risk Factors

  • Just 7 Hits and 4 ER from Woods Richardson over last 3 starts

🎯 CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +115 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

CJ Abrams is absolutely dialed in, and the over on 1.5 total bases at +115 offers excellent value. He’s hit this number in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 3, with a 3-game average of 4 total bases and a 5-game average of 3. He’s also holding a .359 OBP vs right-handed pitching and gets a matchup with Jack Flaherty, who’s allowed 5+ hits in three straight outings. With Abrams locked in at the plate and drawing a hittable arm, this is a high-upside spot worth backing.

Risk Factors

  • Will need XBH or a multi-hit game to cash

🎯 Corey Seager OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 R/G

  • Season Average: .537 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Corey Seager has been a consistent run producer, and the over on 0.5 runs scored is a strong look at -120. He’s scored in five straight games, averaging 1.2 runs over his last five and 1.33 over his last three—well above his season average of 0.537. Seager holds a .378 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who’s posted a 4.06 ERA and has allowed 3+ earned runs in four straight starts, including a rough 7-run outing his last time out. With Seager getting on base and hitting near the top of the order, he's in a great spot to cross the plate again.

Risk Factors

  • Will likely count on others in the lineup to cash

🎯 Merrill Kelly OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -120 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 7 SO

  • Last 3-Game Average: 7 SO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 7.2 SO/G

  • Season Average: 5.882 SO/G

  • Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 10 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Merrill Kelly is in peak form, and the over on 5.5 strikeouts looks like a strong play at -120. He’s cleared this number in 10 straight starts, with a 5-game average of 7.2 strikeouts and a 3-game average of 7. Even his season average of 5.882 Ks supports the over. He draws a strikeout-prone Giants lineup that’s whiffing 11 times per game over their last 3. With consistent punchout production and a favorable matchup, Kelly is well-positioned to keep the streak alive.

Risk Factors

  • Line sits right around season average

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Aaron Judge +215

  • Brandon Lowe +320

  • Mike Trout +230

  • Isaac Paredes +290

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Averaging 3 TB/G over last 5

    • Holds a .359 OBP vs right-handed pitching and gets a matchup with Jack Flaherty, who’s allowed 5+ hits in three straight outings

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Kyle Stowers OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • He faces Simeon Woods Richardson, who has a 4.63 ERA and is allowing more than a hit per inning on average

2. ⚡ Corey Seager OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (-120 DraftKings)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.2 R/G over last 5

  • Seager holds a .378 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who’s posted a 4.06 ERA and has allowed 3+ earned runs in four straight starts, including a rough 7-run outing his last time out

3. 💥 Merrill Kelly OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120 BetMGM)

  • 10/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 7.2 SO/G over last 5

  • He draws a strikeout-prone Giants lineup that’s whiffing 11 times per game over their last 3

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team