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MLB Props That Hit: Ride the Hot Streaks, Fade the Noise, Cash Daily
Cut through the noise with a daily breakdown of the top edges in the market.
Sage Davis
May 13, 2025
We went 3-1 yesterday, with the only miss coming from Quantrill, who fell short by issuing two walks. With a full 15-game MLB slate on tap today, we’ve dug in and found a fresh set of props too good to ignore. Let’s stay hot—lock in and let’s cash together.
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (05/12): 3-1 (75%; +1.4 Units)
MLB: 62-59 (51%; +10.26 Units)
NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)
May ‘25: 23-17 (57.5%; +0.76 Units)
All-Time: 187-159 (54%; +46.45 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Cedric Mullins UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -121 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 0.8 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 1.919 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 89
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Cedric Mullins’ UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -121 on Caesars looks like a strong value play based on both recent trends and matchup context. Despite his solid season average of 1.919 H/R/RBIs per game, Mullins has gone under this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5 and 2 of his last 3. His recent 5-game average sits at just 0.8 H/R/RBIs, showing a sharp drop in production. He’s struggling mightily at the plate in May with a .088 batting average and has poor splits against righties (.211 AVG). Though opponent Simeon Woods Richardson has been hittable recently, Mullins is 0-for-2 against him in his career and is not capitalizing on opportunities.
Risk Factors
Woods Richardson has been very hittable
🎯 Gleyber Torres OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 8 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 2.621 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 85
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Gleyber Torres’ OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -130 on ESPN Bet is well-supported by both his recent surge and a favorable matchup. Torres is locked in at the plate, hitting .371 in May with 10 RBIs and averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games. He’s cleared this line in each of his last 3 outings, 4 of his last 5, and 7 of his last 10, showing strong consistency. His season average of 2.621 H/R/RBIs per game also comfortably exceeds the line. Against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, Torres is 7-for-21 lifetime with 2 RBIs, and Bello has been vulnerable lately, giving up 5 runs, 18 hits, and 12 walks over his last 4 starts.
Risk Factors
Bello has been pretty solid over the last few starts
🎯 Juan Soto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: .67 H/R/RBIs per Game
Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per Game
Season Average: 2.119 H/R/RBIs per Game
Confidence Score: 84
How Has This Prop Performed?
1 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Juan Soto’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -135 on ESPN Bet is backed by his season-long consistency and a highly favorable pitching matchup. While his 3-game average of just 0.67 H/R/RBIs is a recent dip, his 5-game average jumps to 2.8, and his season mark stands at a solid 2.119—both well above the line. Soto has hit this prop in 7 of his last 10 games, indicating strong overall form despite the brief lull. He’s 3-for-8 in his career against Mitch Keller, who’s been struggling mightily—surrendering 22 runs, 48 hits, and 15 walks over his last 8 starts.
Risk Factors
Soto lower average vs RHP
🎯 Minnesota Twins Moneyline
Best Price: +144 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: Won
Last 3-Game Average: 3-0
Last 5-Game Average: 5-0
Season Average: 21-20
Confidence Score: 84
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 won
5 out of last 5 won
Key Analysis
The Minnesota Twins moneyline at +144 on Pinnacle offers strong value given their current momentum and a favorable pitching edge. The Twins have won five straight, including their last three games, and are now back over .500 at 21-20 on the season. They’re facing Orioles starter Cade Povich, who has struggled mightily, going 1-3 while allowing 22 runs on 43 hits over his last 7 starts. Baltimore's pitching staff as a whole has been shaky, giving up 5.44 runs per game compared to just 3.54 for the Twins.
Risk Factors
Rainy weather
Pretty even matchup aside from runs allowed per game
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Kerry Carpenter +500
Austin Riley +300
Juan Soto +390
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Gleyber Torres OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 ESPN Bet)
Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5
Averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Torres is 7-for-21 lifetime with 2 RBIs, and Bello has been vulnerable lately, giving up 5 runs, 18 hits, and 12 walks over his last 4 starts
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Juan Soto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)
Hot streak: 7/10 in L10
Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
He’s 3-for-8 in his career against Mitch Keller, who’s been struggling mightily—surrendering 22 runs, 48 hits, and 15 walks over his last 8 starts
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Cedric Mullins UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-121 Caesars)
8/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just .80 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5 games
He’s struggling mightily at the plate in May with a .088 batting average and has poor splits against righties (.211 AVG)
Watch List
1. ⚠️ Minnesota Twins Moneyline (+144 Pinnacle)
Strong trend but even pitching matchup and weather in Baltimore is very rainy
Cade Povich, who has struggled mightily, going 1-3 while allowing 22 runs on 43 hits over his last 7 starts.
Baltimore's pitching staff as a whole has been shaky, giving up 5.44 runs per game compared to just 3.54 for the Twins.
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team