MLB Wild Card Kicks Off: 3 Picks to Open October

The postseason stage is set, and we’re targeting 3 plays to start strong

We swept last night’s MNF doubleheader and cashed a 3.12-unit comeback, meaning momentum is back on our side. Today kicks off postseason baseball, and we’re dialed in on a few strong player props to open October. A full Wild Card round breakdown is on the way, so stay tuned. And don’t miss the WagerLens Postseason Bracket Challenge, brackets lock at first pitch, so get your picks in now!

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/29): 3-0 (100%; +3.12 Units)

MLB: 227-206 (52%; +16 Units)

September ‘25: 47-56 (46%; -4 units)

All-Time: 380-341 (53%; +52.5 Units)

🎯 Ryan O’Hearn OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.826 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Ryan O’Hearn’s Hits + Runs + RBIs line is set at 1.5, and the over comes with appealing plus-money value. He’s been producing well above this mark lately, averaging 3 per game over his last three and 3.6 over his last five. He’s cashed this prop in eight of his last ten, including five straight. The matchup also lines up favorably, O’Hearn owns a .358 OBP against left-handed pitching, and he’ll face Boyd, who has allowed 5.4 hits and 3.2 runs per game over his last 5 starts. With both form and matchup on his side, O’Hearn looks like a strong candidate to extend his hot streak.

Risk Factors

  • Will likely need assistance from others in the lineup to cash

🎯 Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -109 on Pinancle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 7 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2.405 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Shohei Ohtani’s total bases line is set at 1.5, and the over looks like a strong angle given both his form and the matchup. He’s averaging 3.7 total bases over his last three games and 2.8 over his last five, well above his season average of 2.4, and he’s cleared this number in seven of his last ten. Ohtani owns a 1.036 OPS against right-handed pitching and now faces Hunter Greene, who has been hittable of late, allowing 3.2 hits and 1.8 earned runs per game over his last five starts, including six hits and three earned runs with two homers allowed in his most recent outing against the Dodgers. With his power and ability to generate extra-base hits, Ohtani has multiple avenues to push past this line.

Risk Factors

  • Walks do not count toward TB

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🎯 Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 3.5 Team Total Runs

Best Price: -130 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.67 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.4 R/G

  • Season Average: 5.09 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

The Dodgers’ team total sits at 3.5 runs, and their offensive consistency makes the over appealing. They scored 6 runs in their last game and are averaging 4.7 across their last three and 5.4 across their last five, both above their season average of 5.09. They’ve cleared this number in four of their last five and seven of their last ten overall, showing steady production. Cincinnati’s pitching matchup adds further upside, the Reds allow 4.2 runs per game on the season, and Hunter Greene has been hittable of late, giving up 3.2 hits and 1.8 earned runs per start over his last five, including six hits, three earned runs, and two homers in his most recent outing against these same Dodgers. With L.A.’s lineup depth and recent form, this team total feels well within reach.

Risk Factors

  • Hunter Greene carries a strong K rate

Think line movement doesn’t matter? Think again.

Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Ryan O’Hearn OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120 ESPN Bet)

    • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

    • Averaging 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5

    • O’Hearn owns a .358 OBP against left-handed pitching, and he’ll face Boyd, who has allowed 5.4 hits and 3.2 runs per game over his last 5 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-109 Pinnacle)

  • Hot streak: 7/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.8 TB/G in L5

  • Ohtani owns a 1.036 OPS against right-handed pitching and now faces Hunter Greene, who has been hittable of late, allowing 3.2 hits and 1.8 earned runs per game over his last five starts, including six hits and three earned runs with two homers allowed in his most recent outing against the Dodgers

2. ⚡ Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 3.5 Team Total Runs (-130 Pinnacle)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 5.4 R/G over their last 5

  • Cincinnati’s pitching matchup adds further upside, the Reds allow 4.2 runs per game on the season, and Hunter Greene has been hittable of late, giving up 3.2 hits and 1.8 earned runs per start over his last five, including six hits, three earned runs, and two homers in his most recent outing against these same Dodgers

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team